A new day for Baghdad

Anchor Lisa Mullins speaks with journalist and author Tom Ricks about the handover of Baghdad from the Americans to the Iraqi security forces. Ricks covered the Iraq war for the Washington Post and is author of The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008.
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LISA MULLINS: Tom Ricks is the author of The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006 to 2008.  He is now in Washington, DC.  Tom, Sahar Issa believes that if the mainly Shiite security forces, working for a mainly Shiite government in Iraq can protect the safety of the average Sunni, than that’s gonna show that Iraq is indeed able to successfully govern after an American withdrawal. For you, what is the sign of Iraq’s stability as of today? What are you looking for?

TOM RICKS: I think that indeed would be a major sign. A second sign related would be the overall behavior of Iraqi security forces, how well they treat the population when there aren’t American soldiers around watching them. And finally, and most broadly, it would be the level of violence against Iraqi civilians, no matter what direction it’s coming from, whether it’s from Belize’s Al Qaeda insurgents, or Iraqi security forces.

LISA MULLINS: And is that going to tell you how able the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is to govern? Or is that telling you something else about the preparedness of the security forces?

TOM RICKS: Preparedness has never been the problem for the security forces, they’ve always been well equipped, they’ve had gradually better training. The problem has always been motivation. What is gonna be motivating these guys? And I worry sometimes when I see all of these Iraqis celebrating. It looks to us like, oh, they’re celebrating in Iraq that is now beyond occupation. I worry that in fact what they’re doing is celebrating, hey, we won, my team won, and my part of Iraq now dominates the rest of the country. If that’s so, then what you may be seeing is simply prelude to another round of Civil War.

LISA MULLINS: How bad, though, do things have to get? I mean, if you’re worried about things devolving into Civil War, how bad do things have to get before American troops are brought back on the scene, since they’re waiting on the sidelines now?

TOM RICKS: I’m not sure they really will be brought back on the scene. I think Americans are really sick of Iraq, they wanna get out. They feel like they’ve given Iraq a chance to move forward, and it’s up to them to take it.

LISA MULLINS: But isn’t that why they’re still there?

TOM RICKS: Yes, right now Americans are still there to try to keep the lid on the violence, and also to try to protect the Iraqi government as it grows. The question though is, if things do fall apart slowly, which is to say over the rest of this year and into next year. By the end of next year it’ll be too late to really have American forces intervene, they’ll be gone.

LISA MULLINS: I don’t know if you would have a different answer for this next year, we’ll try you out and see. But as of now, how would you say the United States has transformed Iraq? And how has Iraq, and the US involvement in it transformed the US?

TOM RICKS: Iraq has changed the US. And actually, you took me back when you asked that question. I remember somebody saying to me years ago, you think the Americans are gonna change Iraq, what the Americans are gonna find out is how much the Iraq war changes them. We have been changed as a country. We are now involved fighting on the ground in the Middle East, and I think we’re stuck on the ground in the Middle East for many, many years to come. This is by no means the end of the American War in Iraq. It is by no means the end of Americans fighting in Iraq. We’re gonna see, I expect a pretty long hot and bloody summer there. And it worries me because I think Afghanistan also is gonna have a long hot summer. That’s why I think Americans are gonna be surprised by how much war news they have to consume over the next three months.

LISA MULLINS: Tom Ricks’ books include Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq 2003 to 2006. Thank you very much Tom.

TOM RICKS: You’re welcome.

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