East Asia

North Korean leader reportedly has cancer

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Reports that North Korea’s leader has pancreatic cancer are unconfirmed, but they’re fueling speculation about who will next rule the reclusive communist dictatorship. Listen

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JEB SHARP: If Japan’s getting ready for a new ruling party, North Korea may be getting ready for a new leader. A South Korean TV station is reporting that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il has been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. The report, which has not been conformed, cited unnamed South Korean and Chinese intelligence officials. If it were true, it might explain Kim Jong-il’s sickly appearance last week during a rare public outing. The 67-year-old North Korean leader was rumored to have suffered a stroke a year ago. He’s seldom appeared in public since then. The World’s Matthew Bell keeps a close eye on North Korea and he joins us now in the studio. Matthew, this report suggesting Kim Jong-il has pancreatic cancer is just the latest in the string of claims, right, about his declining healthy. What do you make of it?

MATTHEW BELL: As you mentioned, the report is unconfirmed, but over the past year, what does seem to be pretty clear is that Kim Jong-il’s healthy is gone way downhill. Just last week, in that appearance, and you can find the video online of him showing up at this official event, commemorating the death of his father, the founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung. He looks terrible, he’s gaunt, he just looks like he’s lost a lot of weight, he sort of walks with a slight limp. He’s got some, looks like missing hair.

JEB SHARP: Which, of course, brings up the perennial questions about transition, and how power will be transferred. And we’ve heard a lot about Kim Jong-il’s youngest son, Kim Jung Un, do you think he’s the heir apparent?

MATTHEW BELL: So, the thinking is that, indeed, he has been chosen to take over for Kim Jong-il, and there’s been, actually, a date, supposedly, that, 20/12, when the official transition will take place. But not that much is known about Kim Jung Un, he’s said to have been born in the early 80′s. He’s 25 or 26 years old. He’s said to have been educated outside the country, and to be a bit more worldly than many other North Korean leaders. The interesting thing is that the transition previously, when Kim Jong-il took over from his father, his father died in 1994, that was the end of a long process where Kim Jong-il was presented to the North Korean public and the government there, over a long period of time, over years. He was brought in, and the transition was more orderly and transparent, whereas now, it just hasn’t been transparent. And then there’s this whole question of how long has Kim Jong-il got?

JEB SHARP: And what’s your sense of how urgent this feels to the Obama Administration, in terms of thinking about the transition positioning for the transition?

MATTHEW BELL: It’s stunning, isn’t it? We’re here talking about a member of the, quote, un-quote, “Axis of Evil.” The country that has gone nuclear, thrown international inspectors out, has a known record of proliferation, and yet it’s just one story of a long list of foreign policy challenges for the Obama Administration. The tough thing is that North Koreans have walked out of the six party talks, which, like the Bush Administration preciously, the Obama Administration says that’s the way they want to deal with the North Koreans. They’ve said they want to engage with the North Koreans, but there’s just no simple way to do it at this point. It’s tough to see what comes next.

JEB SHARP: And in fact, [INDISCERNIBLE] has been more aggressive in recent months, since the Obama Administration came to power. It’s tested a nuclear bomb, it’s fired missiles into the waters off its coast, threatened to attack the south. Do you think that aggression is linked to the transition, the potential transition, the internal dynamics and power struggles?

MATTHEW BELL: A lot of experts think that’s exactly right, that the feeling there in [INDISCERNIBLE] is at a time of uncertainty, and who knows what comes next after Kim Jong-il. You sort of throw up the barricades, give the stiff arm to the outside world, and get your house in order internally.

JEB SHARP: The World’s Matthew Bell, thanks for the update.

MATTHEW BELL: You’re welcome.

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