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The winner of Japan’s national elections, the Democratic Party, is promising to revive the nation’s economy. It also faces challenges in dealing with Japan’s aging population. Anchor Marco Werman speaks with Len Schoppa, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia who has written extensively on Japanese politics.
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MARCO WERMAN: There is no dispute over the results of yesterday’s vote in Japan. The Democratic Party of Japan won a crushing victory. The left-of-center democrats have thereby ended half a century of almost unbroken conservative rule. At least one of the issues the party will have to address may sound familiar to you. Japan has an aging population. More people are on pensions and there’s a shrinking pool of tax payers to support them and other government programs. Len Schoppa is a professor of politics at the University of Virginia. He’s written extensively on Japanese politics. Now Len Schoppa it sounds like social security was a key issue in this year’s election. How big was it?
LEN SCHOPPA: It was the number one issue. It has been for the last several elections. When you ask the voters what they care about number one issue is social welfare programs.
WERMAN: And what campaign promises were made by the incoming government to tackle Japan’s growing social security costs?
SCHOPPA: They promised to fix the pension system and to dramatically expand spending on child allowances so that for each child families will start to receive $300 per month for each child until they’re 13.
WERMAN: Okay I kind of chuckled there at they’re going to fix the social security system. Is this allowance for children the key kind of element that’s going to fix it or do they have other ideas in place as well?
SCHOPPA: In the long term it’s true that to keep a sustainable pension system they need more tax payers. But of course even if this program succeeds in generating more children that won’t help the pension system for 25 years or more. So in the short term they have some other ideas about how to keep the pension revenues and expenditures balanced.
WERMAN: So just briefly $300 per child per month or …?
SCHOPPA: Yes per month.
WERMAN: How can they afford to do this and how long is it going to go on for a program like this?
SCHOPPA: Well many Japanese, including people who voted for the DPJ, are not sure where they’re going to get the money. The DPJ told the voters that they were going to reduce wasted expenditures and use the money they saved elsewhere to pay for this.
WERMAN: How would you compare Japan’s aging population problem to that of ours here in the United States?
SCHOPPA: Well the United States is worried that we’re not going to be able to afford Medicare and social security as the baby boomers age. The projected proportion of over 65 Americans in 2050 is about 22%. And Japan has 22% elderly today. So they’re already dealing with what we’re worried about.
WERMAN: Now given that Japan is right now dealing with their aging population I’m wondering if you can tell us what you think the key elements of any Japanese plan, the one that’s been proposed by the Democratic Party of Japan, that would be most relevant for American plans for the elderly here and saving social security.
SCHOPPA: Part of their planning that is the most useful model for the Untied States is what they’ve done with their healthcare system. As you know in the Untied States even more than the challenge of paying for social security with the baby boomers the real challenge is to how to afford Medicare as the baby boomers age. The Japanese have figured out a system for providing universal health insurance for their people while maintaining a control on costs so that they spend only about half of what we do on healthcare and have a healthier, longer-lived population.
WERMAN: Do you have an idea what you know the average pensioner in Japan receives each month in terms of you know cash in the mail?
SCHOPPA: They have an employee pension system that’s quite generous – more than generous than social security – that covers salaried employees. And those people are going to bring in $2500 maybe even $3000 a month whereas people covered by the National Pension System, these are self-employed farmers and so forth, they get approximately $600 a month.
WERMAN: Len Schoppa is a professor of politics at the University of Virginia and the author of the book “Race for the Exits: The Unraveling of Japan’s System of Social Protection.” Thank you very much.
SCHOPPA: Thank you.
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