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Disarray within the Taliban

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The leader of the Pakistani Taliban is believed to have died last week in a US drone strike. And another Pakistani Taliban leader may also have been killed this past weekend. Anchor Lisa Mullins speaks with Nicholas Schmidle, author of the book, “To Live or to Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan.”

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LISA MULLINS: No strategy to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan can succeed without an effective campaign against the Taliban’s counterparts in neighboring Pakistan. But there’s skepticism about Pakistan’s ability and even its willingness to take on the Taliban. Well now might be a good moment. There may be weakness in the Pakistani Taliban leadership and certainly there’s confusion about it. There have been conflicting reports about the fate of a number of senior Taliban commanders. Journalist Nicholas Schmidle is the author of the book To Live or To Perish Forever: Two Tumultuous Years in Pakistan. Alright Nick there is first Baitullah Mehsoud himself. Now this is the man, as you know, who spearheaded brutal suicide attacks in Pakistan. The man who’s believed to be involved in the assignation of Benazir Bhutto. Most reports now say that he is dead – killed by a US drone. Let’s bring in another figure. This is the militant named Hakimullah Mehsud. He is not a close family member of Baitullah Mehsoud. Hakimullah Mehsud is a contender though to replace Baitullah Mehsoud. There are reports that he is dead but there are also reports that he actually made a phone call to the associated press to say that he was not killed in a clash among potential leaders of the Taliban. What is going on with these contradictory reports of who’s alive and who’s dead?

NICHOLAS SCHMIDLE: Well there is a psychological dimension to this. I think that the Pakistani government does realize and does acknowledge that the militants are a bit frayed right now following the apparent death of Baitullah Mehsoud and so they’re trying to do anything they can to so decent. There are rumors Hakimullah was groomed to succeed Baitullah and there were rumors that on Saturday morning as there was a gathering of the top leaders that gun fight broke out between Hakimullah and one of the other leaders, Waliur Rehman, over who would take over. And the rumors are that both of them have been killed. Now what I think is adding to the confusion is that there have been phone calls out of South Waziristan from Waliur Rehman and then later from someone else close saying that there were going to be phone calls from Hakimullah and there was going to be a video from Baitullah confirming that they were all still alive and none of them have played out.

MULLINS: Well if nothing else then, even if we don’t know exactly who’s alive and who’s dead, we do know that there is a tremendous amount of in-fighting. When there is in-fighting among successors to the leadership of a militant or insurgent stronghold does the United States benefit from that kind of in-fighting?

SCHMIDLE: It depends on who emerges. If someone from the Mehsoud tribe or a figure that’s very close to al-Qaeda emerges at the top they immediately are going to have the radar of a drone on their head within you know literally 12 hours. So the Untied States almost benefits from the Mehsouds putting forth another Mehsoud because the intelligence that led to Baitullah Mehsoud’s apparent assassination is going to be good enough to get the next guy who comes from the Mehsoud tribe as well.

MULLINS: And that came from Pakistan?

SCHMIDLE: It does. And that actually… And this was a high point in Pakistan and US’s relationship really since 2001 where you had the Pakistanis supplying the ground intelligence, the human intelligence, that the US just doesn’t have the capability to gather at this point, and the US supplying the technological expertise with the drones.

MULLINS: Because their interest. The US interest and Pakistan’s interest intersected in getting this one man – Baitullah Mehsoud – out of the picture.

SCHMIDLE: You hit the nail on the head and that’s actually… So this is the apex of that relationship and it leaves a lot of open-ended questions as to what goes forward now. So both the Pakistanis and both the US have a sort of target list if you will that many of the individuals on those target lists aren’t shared between both countries. Baitullah Mehsoud was at the top of both target lists. Even though he didn’t pose a direct threat to the US homeland per say he did pose a direct threat to US soldiers in Afghanistan and to more importantly to the stability of Pakistan.

MULLINS: So what is the bottom line here if we look at whether or not US strategy is helping to defang the Taliban along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border?

SCHMIDLE: I think the bottom line is that this represents a major symbolic and strategic victory for both the US and for Pakistan. Particularly for the CIA who is going to be feeling very embolden in the aftermath of this and is going to be ready to go after more high-value targets on the Pakistani side of the border. But the bottom line is that this was the easy one and the problems now are trying to continue that relationship of cooperation and convince the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment to cut ties with some of the very Taliban leaders they have been supporting for decades that are now endangering and hindering US objectives and goals in Afghanistan.

MULLINS: Nicholas Schmidle is a fellow at the New America Foundation. His most recent book is called To Live or To Parish Forever. Thank you very much.

SCHMIDLE: Thanks Lisa.

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