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Stanford University professor David Holloway authored a report on Iran’s nuclear and missile potential that influenced the changes in President Obama’s missile defense plan. Anchor Marco Werman speaks with Holloway about the new plan.
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MARCO WERMAN: The U.S. yesterday revised its missile defense plans, which were developed in part to respond Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. President Obama shelved the idea of building key parts of the missile shield in Eastern Europe near Russia. Russia had threatened to retaliate by deploying missiles near its border with Poland. Well, today, the Russian government announced it was cancelling that deployment. And NATO’s Secretary-General suggested that Russia, the United States and NATO should now consider linking their missile defense systems. Stanford University Professor David Holloway recently authored a report on Iran’s nuclear missile potential. He says he doesn’t see Russia’s announcement as part of any deal with the U.S.
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: I don’t think it was quid pro quo as that implies something agreed in detail, but the Russians have been making a huge issue of the plans to deploy missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic. And if they were not to respond, if they were to say this change is nothing, that would really give an enormous kind of insult really to the Obama Administration and would set back any chance of improving relations.
WERMAN: You know, people were talking about the renewal of the Cold War, a kind of a Cold War of light, if you will, toward the end of Bush 43’s second term. Does the news yesterday give you hope that maybe that won’t ever be the case?
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: Yes, it does give me some hope for improvement in U.S.-Russian relations. Of course, solving one problem often opens up other problems, and now there’s a very important issue, which many people have raised about U.S. relations with the countries of Eastern and Central Europe that were formerly part of the Soviet Block. And many people there had come to these the Planned Missile Defense as a symbol of the U.S. commitment to that region. So I think it will be important for the U.S. and indeed for NATO as a whole to make clear that this does not mark an abandonment of those countries or lessening of a commitment to their security.
WERMAN: Professor Holloway, let’s talk about the nuclear missile capability Iran may actually have. What are they working on and what do they have now?
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: They have now a number of missiles that have a range of somewhere between 1,200 and 2,000 kilometers.
WERMAN: 2,000 kilometers. That’s approximately 1,200 miles?
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: 1,200 miles, yes, and the assumption that most people make is that these missiles could carry warheads including nuclear warheads weighing about a ton to the ranges that I’ve mentioned. That’s what they’re working on in a most determined way at the moment.
WERMAN: Right, but they don’t actually have those nuclear warheads at their disposal right now?
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: No, they don’t and they have said, of course, they are not developing such warheads, but that’s the threat that many people fear is the most dangerous threat, the capacity to deliver nuclear warheads to that range by the missiles they’re developing.
WERMAN: Right, and your research has shown that there is no imminent threat from Iranian long-range missiles. So tell us what they’re aiming at?
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: I took part in a study done with American and Russian specialists on Iran’s nuclear and missile potential, and we came to the conclusion that while they have a very active program to develop missiles of the ranges we’ve just talked about, it would require a very significant technological effort for them to develop longer range missiles that could strike the United States or even strike the northern and western parts of Europe. So the 1,200 hundred miles, that range gives some coverage, of course, of the Middle East, of the Gulf, of Southern Europe and of Southern Russia. And that seems to be where the emphasis of their program has been up ’til now.
WERMAN: So give us some more tangible information you might have about the presumed target, if this is the case, Israel.
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: Yes, we assume that certainly Israel would be a target and would be covered by missiles of the kind they are developing and have tested. But so, too, would other countries in the Middle East, and one could imagine that even apart from possible military use of such weapons that Iran is aiming to bolster its position as a regional power through the development of these capabilities.
WERMAN: David Holloway, Professor of International History at Stanford University. Thank you very much.
PROFESSOR HOLLOWAY: Thank you.
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