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Afghan election returns released on Tuesday pointed to a first-round victory for incumbent president Hamid Karzai. But the results were immediately questioned as a U.N.-backed watchdog agency said it had found “clear and convincing evidence of fraud” and ordered a partial recount.

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MARCO WERMAN: I’m Marco Werman, and this is The World.  First we’ll tell you the news out of Afghanistan; then we’ll tell you why it may be useless information.  The news is that Incumbent President, Hamid Karzai, has more than 54 percent of the votes cast in last month’s election.  Karzai’s nearest rival, Abdullah Abdullah, has 23 percent.  The question is, “What do these numbers mean?”  The answer may be, “Not much.”  Compelling evidence of fraud continues to surface in Afghanistan.  Dexter Filkins is a correspondent for the New York Times.  He’s been writing about the allegations of fraud in the balloting.  Dexter, what do we know with certainty about how pervasive the fraud has been?

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, we know there was a lot of fraud, and we know that it was pervasive in a pretty huge swatch of the country in the southern part and in the eastern part.  And just to give your listeners one example, I think the conclusion that was reached by some senior Western diplomats, let’s say–looking at the records here, and if you just take Kandahar Province, where 350,000 people were reported to have voted, and 350,000 ballots were turned in (or roughly that), and the overwhelming majority was for President Karzai.  The estimate is that really only 25,000 went to the poles.  Just “stand back and take a look at that.”  I mean, there’s 325,000 ballots that just kind of “came out of thin air.”

WERMAN: Do we know who was behind those 225,000 ballots “out of thin air?”

FILKINS: Well, not those in particular, but there’s a Panel in Afghanistan which is staffed by non-Afghans.  It’s staffed by people who have been appointed by the United Nations called, “The Election Complaint Commission,” and they’ve been absolutely deluged with more than 2,000 complaints.  I think 700, of which, are serious enough that they could turn the outcome of the election.  And most of those complaints are directed at President Karzai’s campaign.  So, the interesting thing now is going to be that this Complaint Commission is going to have to try to figure out what’s true and what’s not, and that could take a very long time.

WERMAN: Right.  This Election Complaints Commission has actually ordered a re-count, but does it make sense to re-count a “stuffed” ballot box?

FILKINS: That’s a very good question.  The people on the Complaint Commission are pretty savvy, and I think they know what the “score” is; and, they can disqualify ballots if they believe that those ballots were fraudulently cast.  And, I think that’s what you’re going to see.  I think the really big question for them (the election will turn on this question)—the question is going to be, “if they see a pattern of fraud”—if the same thing was done in every district in Kandahar Province and every province in the south and east, what do you then, you know?  Do you throw out all the ballots, or do you just throw out the ones that you can determine are fraudulent?  That’s going to be the tricky decision for them.  But I think one likely outcome—Karzai has 54 percent of the votes—if they disqualify not so many, you could have Karzai, then, coming in with less than 50 percent of the vote, and that would necessitate a run-off election.

WERMAN: To what extent are all these charges of fraud undermining the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s government under Hamid Karzai?

FILKINS: Yeah, I think the answer is they’re undermining it quite a bit.  The Afghans know there’s been fraud.  I mean, this is their country, and they know how it works; and they know what they saw, and people have family around the country.  They’re convinced that this was a … I mean the people, at least, that I’ve spoken to, are pretty convinced this was a fraudulent election.  That presents a dilemma, you know.  Of course, it presents a dilemma for the Afghan government, but it presents a dilemma for the American government.  The danger here; I mean, at least the risk is, that the United States gets stuck trying to prop-up an illegitimate government for the next five years.  I don’t know that that’s the case, but I think that’s the risk here, if these allegations aren’t sorted-out.  I think the Americans know that.

WERMAN: Right.  I mean, Karl Eikenberry, the U. S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, actually met with President Karzai last night.  What is the message Washington is currently sending to Hamid Karzai, do you think?

FILKINS: The United States, and the diplomats here, and Ambassador Eikenberry—they don’t want to be seen as tampering with the outcome of this election.  They want to be seen as the “neutral brokers;” and so, they’ve been trying to stand back (the Americans have), and let the Complaint Commission and these other people sort these things out.  But I didn’t go to that meeting between Ambassador Eikenberry and President Karzai, but I certainly would have liked to have been; but, because my guess is that Ambassador Eikenberry probably had some pretty sharp words for President Karzai–I’m just speculating here, but to the effect of, “you know, we know there’s fraud, and we’re going to back up the people who are looking into it”—something like that.

WERMAN: The people being the Election Complaints Commission, I suppose?

FILKINS: You know, there’s two commissions here.  One of them is counting the votes (that’s the Afghan Election Commission, and most of those people were appointed by President Karzai, or in his government); and then you have the Complaints Commission, and that’s basically five people—three of whom were appointed by the local representative for the United Nations.  So, I think one is from Canada; one is from the United States, and another is from Europe.  They are independent, and they are neutral brokers; and so, they are very cognizant of, you know, the various methods and means that have been used to try to manufacture ballots here.  So, they’re “on the case.”

WERMAN: Dexter Filkins with the New York Times.  Thank you.

FILKINS: Thank you so much.

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