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US decision looming on Afghanistan

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The World’s Jason Margolis reports on the debate over what the US should do next in Afghanistan. The Obama Administration faces a key choice: send in more troops or focus on counter-terrorism.

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JEB SHARP: President Obama is also watching what’s happening in Afghanistan.  He faces a difficult decision in the coming weeks, whether to send in more troops to beef up a counter insurgency effort or whether to focus more on counter terrorism.  The World’s Jason Margolis has more.

JASON MARGOLIS:  President Obama hasn’t tipped his hand about a potential troop increase in Afghanistan.  Ten days ago he said there is no immediate decision pending.  Today the President met with the new Secretary General of NATO and offered a few public words about their conversation.

PRESIDENT OBAMA:  We both agree that it is absolutely critical that we are successful in dismantling, disrupting, destroying the Al Qaeda network and that we are effectively working with the Afghan government to provide the security necessary for that country.

JASON MARGOLIS:  After nearly eight years of trying to accomplish this, the question still remains how.  First, it’s helpful to define the enemy.  Are U.S. and NATO troops fighting insurgents or terrorists?  Audrey Kurth Cronin, author of the new book, “How Terrorism Ends,” offers some definitions.

AUDREY KURTH CRONIN:  An insurgency usually targets military targets and holds territory.  Terrorist groups targets primarily civilian targets.

JASON MARGOLIS:  To fight terrorism, the goal is relatively straightforward.  Capture or kill the enemy.  Launching a counter insurgency strategy involves protecting the population and getting them over to your side.  The commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, says the U.S. needs to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.  That would be in line with the counter insurgency.  McChrystal says to do that effectively, more troops are needed.  That strategy may have seemed quite reasonable a few months ago, says Lawrence Korb, an assistant secretary of defense under President Reagan.  But Korb says now, with the contested Afghan election, President Obama has to make a decision.

LAWRENCE KORB:  He’s going to have to decide whether this is a government that it’s worth Americans fighting and dying for and spending a lot of resources.

MARGOLIS:  If President Obama does shift more towards a counter terrorism strategy, Korb estimates that the U.S. military could cut its current troop levels in Afghanistan in half.

KORB:  What they would do is they would take out the majority of the combat troops, leave Special Forces in there to provide intelligence on where the insurgents might be and use drones or other types of air power from off shore to attack these camps.

MARGOLIS:  But launching counter terrorism and counter insurgency strategies often overlap.  Karin Von Hippel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington says drones and missiles can’t win the war alone.

KARIN VON HIPPEL:  In order to do even a more traditional counter terrorism operation in Afghanistan, you still need a very serious ground presence.  You still need good intelligence and you need to still focus on building up the Afghan capacity.

MARGOLIS:  There’s another school of thought over how best to defeat Al Qaeda.  Just get out of the way.

VON HIPPEL:  I think Al Qaeda is its own worst enemy.

MARGOLIS:  Again, Audrey Kruth Cronin.  She says historically, most terror groups naturally implode over time.

KRUTH CRONIN:  The most important way to try to move that dynamic along toward implosion would be to try to highlight the kinds of attacks that Al Qaeda and some of these Taliban factions are engaging in that kill their own people.

MARGOLIS:  Cronin won’t comment on the issue of troop levels and she’s not saying Al Qaeda doesn’t pose a threat but she does say moving the narrative away from the American presence in Afghanistan would speed up Al Qaeda’s demise. There’s one more factor for President Obama to consider with his Afghanistan policy, the Afghan people.  Namely, does the U.S. bear a moral responsibility to rebuild that nation?  For The World, I’m Jason Margolis.

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