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Today, Iran’s foreign minister said his government may agree to send some of its nuclear fuel abroad, but Iran will not give up its right to enrich uranium at home. We speak with Joseph Cirincione, a non-proliferation expert and president of the Ploughshares Fund in Washington.
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JEB SHARP: In Iraq’s eastern neighbor, Iran, the issue is the country’s nuclear aspirations. Western powers want Iran to send its low-enriched uranium to Russia for processing. That would allow Iran to develop nuclear energy, but it would restrict Iran’s ability to develop weapons grade uranium. Today Iran’s foreign minister said his government may agree to send some of its nuclear fuel abroad, but he insisted that Iran will not give up its right to enriched uranium at home. Joseph Cirincione is a non-proliferation expert and he’s president of the Ploughshares Fund in Washington, which is an underwriter for this program. He says mixed signals from Iran’s leaders are an indication of the political turmoil in Tehran.
JOSEPH CIRINCIONE: They have various factions, reformists, hardliners, harder liners, and they’re all jockeying for domestic political advantage. Remember, this is a regime on the rocks. This is one that’s had deep troubles since the rigged elections this summer, and it’s not at all clear how long it’s going to survive. So an issue like this, which gets at the very core of the regime’s national security strategy, is subject to this kind of intense debate. We just don’t know how it’s going to turn out.
SHARP: And spell out what the real incentive is for Iran to go along with the deal.
CIRINCIONE: Well, they’re under intense international pressure. There is a board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency coming up next month. They would like to go into that board meeting with some of the pressure relieved. Agreeing to this kind of deal would do that. The US and Europe have talked about bringing in other sanctions resolution before the UN Security Council. They could do that in late November, early December. A deal would probably forestall that kind of action. And finally, Iran has severe financial problems, due to the sanctions that have hurt not so much economically, but have strangled financial investment in the country. They
desperately need to improve the economy in some way, so there’s pressure on them to make a deal, to loosen up some of the sanctions that are restricting banking and other financial activities.
SHARP: And to flip it on its head, what do they gain by not complying
CIRINCIONE: Internally, the harder line factions would be able to pose as the true defenders of the Irani and Islamic revolution against those that would give up Iran’s national security interests. There really is no international gain for them. It’s all domestic politics, which is why in the end, I think they’re going to agree to this kind of deal. What they’re going to try to do is modify it.
SHARP: And Joe, just one question to follow up to something earlier. You made a reference to the regime being in the rocks. Did you mean that? I mean, how do you characterize the strength or state of the Iranian regime?
CIRINCIONE: The Iranian regime is much weaker than people realize. It’s true that Ahmadinejad has sort of purged the bureaucracy and put more of his people in place, but a large faction, maybe the majority of the Iranian population, is now permanently alienated from this regime. There are splits in the mullahs who rule the country. There are serious financial and economic difficulties facing this country, huge unemployment among the youth in the country. Remember, 60 percent of Iran is under the age of 30, and you’ve got unemployment about 40 to 50 percent. That is a very dangerous situation for any country at any time. And Iran doesn’t really have any allies. There’s nobody that really backs Iran. Russia is the closest they get, and that’s a sometimes thing. So for those reasons, I believe that the days of this Iranian regime are numbered. We can’t predict how long they will hold on, but I would not want to be in their shoes.
SHARP: Joseph Cirincione is president of the Ploughshares Fund and the author of “Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons.” Thanks so much.
CIRINCIONE: My pleasure, Jeb. Thank you.
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I suggest listening to Cyrus Safdari’s analysis on CounterSpin for more of a balanced view
http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3925