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Anchor Marco Werman speaks with former Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller about the announcement today by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he will freeze Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank for ten months.

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MARCO WERMAN: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today announced a ten-month freeze on new settlement construction in the West Bank.   He said the gesture could help re-start peace talks with the Palestinians.  But his announcement did not include settlements in East Jerusalem, and Palestinian leaders say that’s unacceptable.  US officials reacted with guarded optimism.   Aaron David Miller has advised six US Secretaries of State on negotiating an Arab- Israeli peace.   He’s says today’s announcement is significant yet problematic.

AARON DAVID MILLER: Without going overboard, I think for a Likud Prime Minister, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu, to formally, particularly under pressure from the United States, articulate an official freeze on settlement activity, even though it isn’t perfect, is actually quite consequential. I think it probably could have even been more so had the Obama administration not articulated an objective, that is to say, a comprehensive freeze, including natural growth, which was unattainable and which is now going to make whatever the Israelis do insufficient in the eyes of the Palestinians.

WERMAN: So maybe the bar was set too high from the get go.  But do you think a ten-month freeze could prompt the Palestinians to re-engage at least?

MILLER:  I don’t.  I think that the Palestinians have now articulated their own bottom lines and red lines. Jerusalem is not covered by this freeze.  This freeze of course does not cover those units that were already authorized for construction.  If you look at the activity that the Israelis will engage in, in terms of new units over the course of the next year or so, it’s going to appear to be not a freeze at all, but a construction boom.  So settlements is not the issue on which the administration should have been focused from the beginning, because in the end, it’s a no-win issue.  Rather, it’s how to get negotiations going on the core issues, Jerusalem, borders, security and refugees.

WERMAN: But for years, all we’ve heard is that the settlements are the consequential issue.  Now it sounds like you’re saying they’re not really the main issue.

MILLER:  Well, they are a consequential issue, and of all the things the Israelis do, they are clearly designed to prejudge and predetermine the outcome of negotiations.  They humiliate the Palestinians.  But in the end, if you address the borders issue, if you could actually set the borders of a Palestinian state, you would ultimately get through the settlement issue and you would do so in the process of advancing toward an actual agreement.  By going after settlements piecemeal, you’re going to end up negotiating with the Israelis and the Palestinians twice.  It seems to me, the last ten months, the administration, as their first year, basically Obama has gotten three no’s.  A no from the Israeli on comprehensive settlements freeze, including natural growth, a no from the Palestinians, “We’re not going back to the negotiating table,” and a no from the Arab states, “We’re not going to normalize till you produce something truly significant from the Israelis.”

WERMAN: Do you believe that at some point President Obama should insert himself directly into negotiations to move this thing along?

MILLER:  If he’s prepared to risk the very real possibility of failure.  I suspect that it may well be that sometime next year, once the Afghanistan decision-making process is completed, once healthcare is done, the President may well consider putting out his own ideas in an effort to bridge the gaps between Israelis and Palestinians.  And if there are no takers, then at least demonstrate that America still has hope and is prepared to invest in the end game.  I would not rule that out.  It’s just that he’s got to understand that this is going to be an excruciatingly long and messy process.  And in the end, you’re quite right, he’s going to have to invest himself, certainly the Secretary of State for sure, but the President’s going to have to invest himself and he’s going to have to put himself in the middle of the mix, which for a President on this issue, can be a very difficult and tricky situation.

WERMAN: Aaron David Miller with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, thanks very much for speaking with us.

MILLER: It’s a pleasure and thanks for calling.

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