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MARCO WERMAN: I’m Marco Werman.  And this is The World, a co-production of the BBC World Service, PRI and WGBH Boston.  A prisoner exchange may be in the works between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.  A German mediator is shuttling between the two sides.  The deal would free Israeli soldier Gilad Shailt in exchange for up to a thousand Palestinian prisoners.  The negotiation is now over a number of conditions for the swap.

But if the exchange DOES take place, it could have a lingering impact — as The World’s Aaron Schachter reports.

AARON SCHACHTER: Gilad Shalit has languished in Gaza for three and a half years.  A group of militants, including Hamas members, tunneled under the Gaza border in June 2006 and grabbed Shalit from an Israeli military base.  Two of his colleagues were killed.  The militant’s goal has always been to trade Shalit for about 1000 prisoners held in Israeli jails.  It seems most of that goal could be realized. Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian analyst based in Jordan.

DAOUD KUTTAB: There’s a good way to look at it and a bad way.

SCHACHTER: Kuttab says the impending prisoner swap is good for the families of the hundreds of men and women who might be released from Israeli jails.  But that doesn’t outweigh the bad message this sends that violence pays off.

KUTTAB: Hamas can claim that because they kidnapped a soldier they succeeded where Abu Mazen, the moderate leader who believes in non-violence was not able to.  So it sends a very bad message, I think, as to what really produces results in the Middle East.

SCHACHTER: But ironically, the prisoner swap could be a boon for all involved.  Hamas is demanding the release of Fatah organizer Marwan Barghoutti.   He was a leader of both the first and second Palestinian Intifadas.  Israel convicted him for murder in 2004, and he’s now serving five life sentences.  Even so, many in Israel consider Barghoutti a realist who recognizes a Palestinian state won’t be forged from violence. In fact, there’s always been talk that Israel imprisoned Barghoutti so he could emerge triumphant from jail as a leader.

ALPHER: That was the general assumption and it still should be.

SCHACHTER: Yossi Alpher is the Israeli co-editor of Bitterlemons.org, an Israeli-Palestinian website focusing on the peace process.  He says Barghoutti’s release could give Israel the Palestinian “partner” they’ve long-claimed is missing.  Then again, Alpher says Barghoutti may not be all that much better than any other Palestinian moderate.

ALPHER: His leadership status was built up primarily in jail.  And to what extent he will fulfill the hopes that have been pinned on him since he went to jail is really a very open question.  I doubt very much he’s a Nelson Mandela.

SCHACHTER: But a recent poll gives Barghoutti Mandela-like stature.  It suggests that if the current Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas stepped aside, Barghoutti would be a shoe-in as the next Palestinian President – even if he ran from jail.  And that, says long-time friend Ziad Abu Ain, would give Marwan Barghoutti a mandate long missing from Palestinian politics… to cut a deal with Israel as part of the peace process.

ABU AIN: ‘Til right now, Marwan believe in the peace process, believe in the full rights for Palestinian people to have a good democratic Palestinian state, supports democracy, you know.

SCHACHTER: Abu Ain and others are quick to point out that Barghoutti has no desire to usurp the Palestinian leadership from the current president.  They claim there’s absolutely no talk of Barghoutti ascending to the top unless and until Mahmoud Abbas steps aside.  But still his release would be a big plus for the Fatah party, of which Barghoutti is a member.  So a Barghoutti release is good for Fatah, good for Israel… but how about Hamas?

NEJJAR: I think Hamas do well now.

SCHACHTER: Issam Nejjar is a Palestinian architect.

NEJJAR: I’ll tell you something.  I think they live here day by day.  They’ll never remember yesterday.

SCHACHTER: People live day by day except this they will remember?

NEJJAR: Except only this, yeah.

SCHACHTER: Nejjar and just about everyone I speak with on the street, including Fatah supporters, say if Hamas succeeds in freeing Marwan Barghoutti, the group’s popularity will get an immediate bounce… and could stay high until Palestinian elections are next held, possibly in the spring.  A Fatah spokesman was the only person to deny this… saying the memory of Hamas’ violent and bloody takeover of the Gaza strip in 2007 will be what voters remember.  But a lot of variables remain – including whether Barghoutti is released… and whether the antipathy between Hamas and Fatah can be resolved.  If not, the possibility of any credible elections is dim.  For The World, I’m Aaron Schachter, Ramallah, The West Bank.

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