Failure “to connect the dots”

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Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair has promised action after sharp criticism from President Barack Obama over the failed attempt to blow up flight 253 on Christmas Day. Blair said the intelligence community had to boost efforts to prevent new types of attacks. Mr Obama had earlier told senior officials that the failure to anticipate the attack was a “screw-up”. The intelligence community had failed to “connect the dots”, Mr Obama said in a statement, adding: “That’s not acceptable, and I will not tolerate it.” Matthew Bell looks at the fallout after the President’s remarks.

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MARCO WERMAN: I’m Marco Werman and this is The World.  President Obama says systemic failures in the intelligence community led to the attempted downing of a Detroit-bound airliner.  And tomorrow the White House is expected to release new details about that foiled attack. It plans to put out an unclassified version of a report into intelligence failures. That report is expected to include recommendations on how to fix those problems.  The World’s Matthew Bell reports.

MATTHEW BELL: White House spokesman Robert Gibbs today sidestepped a question about what new details might come out of the review being released tomorrow. But he said the President has been clear about one thing; this review will not be a pretty picture. It’s about an intelligence failure.

ROBERT GIBBS: We understand that this was a systemic failure. We understand that information we had in our possession, information that likely could have prevented or disrupted the incident on the 25th of December from happening.

BELL: Most importantly, Gibbs said the President is looking at necessary steps to prevent something like this from happening again. Intelligence Expert James Carafano at the Conservative Heritage Foundation says the Administration is missing the point.  He says it’s a mistake to go about fixing the intelligence system by trying to prevent the most recent style of attack. Carafano compares it to France’s attempt to fortify its borders against a German invasion ahead of World War II.  The network of trenches and fortifications failed, because the Germans simply went around it.

JAMES CARAFANO: It’s kind of this Maginot Line approach that if we build this perfect system, we’ll never get attacked again.  Well, if we build a perfect system, the day after it’s built it’s not going to be perfect any more.

BELL: Carafano says the key to success in the intelligence business is to constantly evolve and stay at least one step ahead of your enemy at all times. It’s a never-ending process, he says. The system will really never be entirely foolproof, and that doesn’t play well politically.

CARAFANO: This is a job you have to be on game on the time. And it’s not like you can make the sports analogy because in baseball and football you can lose a couple of games and still win a championship. You know, here you have to be like every single time.

BELL: The White House says President Obama was blunt when he spoke to his national security and intelligence team yesterday. This was a screw up that could have been disastrous, he was quoted as saying, and that is not acceptable. Former CIA official Paul Pillar says the President’s language might annoy some members of the intelligence community. But he says most professionals understand the politics of this issue. The real lesson here, Pillar says, should not be to launch another round of reforms in the intelligence system.

PAUL PILLAR: Reorganizations or trying to fix governmental systems or procedures is not going to prevent terrorist attacks or attempted terrorist attacks against Americans.

BELL: Pillar says things like aviation security, intelligence sharing and watch lists are all important, but they are only parts of an overall counter-terrorism strategy.

PILLAR: There are all the other things as well including policies and practices that affect the likelihood that people either at home or abroad will be radicalized, and will try to act out their anger against us. It includes the military action overseas. It includes countless other law enforcement, financial control and other measures that come under the heading of counter-terrorism.

BELL: Pillar says there’s no such thing as a systemic fix to prevent any and all terrorist attacks. But this specific case has some alarming elements to it, says Intelligence Expert James Lewis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

JAMES LEWIS: The fact that the fellow bought his ticket with cash should have been an immediate alarm bell. You know, putting aside his father coming in, which was also a good tip, but an international ticket with cash? Why wasn’t he immediately popped onto some secondary review list?

BELL: Experts say that information sharing among U.S. Intelligence agencies has improved since September 11, 2001.  But apparently not enough to prevent this latest attempt, and that’s raising tough questions about what needs to change.  For The World, I’m Matthew Bell.

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