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US missiles and Iran

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The Pentagon says it’s expanding land and sea-based missile defense systems in and around the Persian Gulf. The moves are intended to counter what the US considers a growing missile threat from Iran. The buildup comes as President Obama is pushing for a new round of sanctions against the Iranians over their nuclear program. The World’s Matthew Bell reports that the military expansion seems to be part of an evolving policy toward Iran. Download MP3

• BBC coverage
• Defense Department’s Quadrennial Defense Review 2010
• Background Brief: Nuclear Standoff with Iran

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MARCO WERMAN:  I’m Marco Werman and this is the World. The Pentagon says it’s expanding land and sea based missile defense systems in and around the Persian Gulf.  The moves are intended to counter what the U.S. considers a growing missile threat from Iran. The buildup comes as President Obama is pushing for a new round of sanctions against the Iranians over their nuclear program.   The World’s Matthew Bell reports that the military expansion seems to be part of an evolving policy toward Iran, one that emphasizes the stick more than the carrot.

MATTHEW BELL: The Pentagon is reported to be speeding up plans to put Patriot defensive missile installations in four Persian Gulf states.  They are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.  The U.S. plan is nothing new.  It would be a continuation of something the Bush Administration started, but the timing is significant given the Iranians’ confrontation with the West over their nuclear program.  Muhammad Sahimi is an Iran expert at the University of Southern California.  He says boosting U.S. anti-missile capabilities in the region goes hand-in-hand with the Obama Administration’s efforts at diplomacy.

MUHAMMAD SAHIMI: Some may call it gunboat diplomacy, but it is definitely part of the maneuvers that the Administration is going through hoping that the hard liners in Tehran will come around and reach an agreement.

BELL: Sahimi says Iran’s hard line leadership is already under enormous internal pressure.  It’s confronting a vigorous opposition protest movement.  On top of that, it’s facing the possibility of yet another round of economic sanctions.  Still, Sahimi says stepping up U.S. military capabilities in the Gulf might not be a good idea.

SAHIMI: This will only increase tension in that region. It will only add to the hostilities that Iran may have toward the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, and in the long run, it doesn’t contribute anything to peace and the stability in the region.

BELL: Other experts see the Obama Administration making a pivot on Iran, away from diplomacy and engagement and toward a tougher approach. Robert Kagan is an international relations expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

ROBERT KAGAN: The Administration is now, especially starting in February when France takes the seat at the U.N. Security Council, the Administration is going to be pressing hard for international sanctions on Iran.  And I think that they are preparing for what is going to be a tense period.

BELL: Kagan applauds President Obama’s apparent shift to a tougher line on Iran, and he says anti-missile systems send an important message to Washington’s Arab allies.

KAGAN: Clearly, it’s an attempt to reassure them that the United States supports their defense.  I think it’s also a way of continuing to get their allegiance as the situation gets more tense in the region. I think they don’t want the powers in the region, especially the smaller powers, to start thinking that they have no choice but to accommodate Iran.  I think that when you provide American security assistance to countries, the idea is that you should stick with the United States, and the United States is going to be capable of helping defend you.

BELL: This is also about sending a message to Israel, says Aaron David Miller.  He’s a former State Department advisor on Middle East issues and currently a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

AARON DAVID MILLER: The notion of reassuring the Israelis and trying to create a measure of determination and seriousness on the part of the Obama Administration to constrain or at least rule out the need for Israeli military action against Iran I think is quite high.

BELL: But Miller says the Israelis might be willing to hold off on a pre-emptive strike against Iran for only so long.

MILLER: If sanctions don’t work, if diplomacy fails then it seems to me as matters drift, they will invariably drift to the very real possibility of an Israeli unilateral military strike.

BELL: It’s not clear how Iran might respond in the near term to new and improved U.S. missile defense assets in the region.  Barbara Slavin is the author of a book about U.S./Iranian relations called, “Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies.”  She says the U.S. military moves should come as little surprise to Tehran.

BARBARA SLAVIN: Iranian actions, its nuclear program, missile tests and so on have clearly led to anxiety on the part of the Gulf States. And so this is to be expected I think if you’re Iran, and I would argue that the Iranian leadership is more focused right now on internal developments than it is on anything outside.

BELL: Slavin says the political uncertainty inside Iran makes it difficult to predict the government’s next move.  For The World, I’m Matthew Bell.

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