Sudan’s looming crisis

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Displaced people in Sudan (Photo: United Nations)

A long-planned referendum could split Africa’s largest nation in two. Some see big trouble ahead for Sudan if the independence vote is mishandled. On Friday President Obama is expected to attend a high level UN meeting on Sudan. Jeb Sharp reports. Download MP3

• BBC Timeline: Sudan
• On the World: Southern Sudan prepares for independence

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LISA MULLINS: Tomorrow at the UN, President Obama turns his attention to Sudan. It’s a critical time for Africa’s largest country. In January, residents of southern Sudan will vote in a referendum on whether to break away and become a new, independent country. But as The World’s Jeb Sharp reports, preparations for the vote are lagging, and so are negotiations over some critical issues.

JEB SHARP:  The destructive civil war between north and south Sudan ended with a peace agreement in 2005. That agreement provided for the January referendum which is the cause of much excitement in the South. But there’s fear too that the referendum will be cancelled, or delayed, or that the results will go unrecognized by the North and lead the country back to war.  Those worries are not unfounded, especially since preparations for the vote are way behind schedule.

ZACH VERTIN:  It’s a huge challenge.

SHARP: That’s Zach Vertin, Sudan analyst with the International Crisis Group in Nairobi.

VERTIN: Getting trained registration staff, getting registration materials, getting lists printed, collecting those from a number of very rural areas, then doing data input and ultimately coming up with a final voters list.

SHARP: Authorities haven’t even designed the registration forms yet, says historian Justin Willis, an expert on Sudanese elections.

JUSTIN WILLIS: One of the problems at the moment is that nobody is willing to say that the referendum should be postponed because nobody wants to be the person who first says let’s not have the referendum.

SHARP: In fact quite the opposite. At the UN meeting tomorrow President Obama and world leaders are expected to emphasize that the referendum must go on, that it must be credible and that the results must be respected. Zach Vertin hopes the meeting will also jumpstart crucial negotiations between north and south. One of the most contentious issues is how to share the revenues from Sudan’s oil reserves.

VERTIN: Those oil reserves are found mostly in the south and thus the ruling party in Khartoum can’t afford to lose them but at the same time the refineries, the pipeline and the infrastructure to exploit that oil are in the north. So ideally the parties can agree to some kind of arrangement in which they can both continue to benefit from those oil revenues even if two separate states.

SHARP: But negotiations on oil sharing are badly stalled, as are talks over the status of several contested border areas. The biggest flashpoint is Abyei, an oil rich territory on the border. Abyei is scheduled to have its own referendum on January 9^th to decide whether it belongs to the north or the south. Who gets to vote in Abyei is another big issue and there’s evidence the nomadic northern Misseriya who graze their cattle in the area are now settling in Abyei in large numbers in an attempt to sway the vote toward the north. John Ashworth has worked on human rights issues in the south for 27 years.

JOHN ASHWORTH:  There’s a very real danger that if the south and the north were to separate peacefully the war might begin again in one of these areas. If the people of one of these areas feel that their aspirations have not been met, if they go back into the bush to start an insurgency, then very soon the north and the south will be drawn back into that conflict again.

SHARP: That’s why the Obama Administration is suddenly scrambling to step up diplomacy on Sudan. Even with all the fears about a return to war, historian Justin Willis thinks both sides have reason to keep talking.

WILLIS: At the moment the peace has brought a degree of wealth to the elites on both sides through the oil industry. Now an immediate return to war would obviously threaten that situation and would have pretty serious economic consequences in northern and southern Sudan so there’s a vested interest in not rushing back to war whatever happens with the referendum.

SHARP: But lots of Sudan watchers are not so sanguine. The Sudanese government is not known for abiding by its agreements. Activists are pushing for strong words from President Obama tomorrow. And the piece they are most worried about right now is that flashpoint of Abyei. For The World, I’m Jeb Sharp.

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