The Kingdom waits

The young men sitting on a plaza outside a café in Riyadh represented two important sides to the story that is unfolding in Saudi Arabia.

As they sipped coffee and scanned a laptop computer, they derided those who are calling Saudis to take to the streets tomorrow.

“People here are not interested in protesting,” said one. “The government has provided young people with everything: security, safety and money. So we do not need to protest.”

So, everyone knows about the Internet clamor for unprecedented demonstrations across the Kingdom tomorrow. And, as even activists have admitted to me, most are not in favor of them. They attribute that to the conservative nature of Saudis, their admitted affection for King Abdullah, and perhaps, fear of reprisals.

There is evidence of the government’s sensitivity to any hint of dissent. For days, government and religious leaders have been warning that demonstrations are illegal and un-Islamic. Past dissenters have been arrested and given stiff jail sentences.

In spite of predictions that any protests will be small, there is a growing police presence in Riyadh. Today, I saw ten busloads of officers stationed in a dirt parking lot downtown. They were near what is rumored to be one of the protest locations.

Last night, a BBC reporter and her cameraman were detained, then released by security officials, as they worked in the eastern part of the country, the same region where I was detained for three hours last week.

The eastern province, dominated by the nation’s Shiite minority, has been the hotspot for protest. There have been several demonstrations there in the past few weeks, though all have been small and relatively brief.

But the test for the activists who are calling for political reforms is whether the unrest will spread east to Jeddah and here to the capital. That is also the chief worry for the government.

The US State Department said this week Saudis have the right to protest peacefully. The sentiments were not welcomed by the nation’s rulers.

“The Kingdom categorically rejects any lectures or interference in our internal matters, in any shape, way or form,” said Prince Saud al-Faisal. His suggestion that any foreigners who get involved would have their “fingers cut off” was a stark warning.

Yet those who feel strongly about the need for reform believe there will be street gatherings tomorrow and that will present a difficult choice to the government. If authorities allow protests, even small ones, to proceed, it may embolden and encourage others to come forward, creating an even bigger challenge to the King’s authority. If police crackdown heavily or resort to violence, it could spark a strong response from protestors.

In the last few days, there have been some moves by the government to defuse the outcry. Shiite prisoners have been released and one reform-minded prince has openly called for women to be given the right to drive. That probably is not enough to satisfy those who want to see democracy, reduced power for the monarchy, an end to corruption and a better sharing of the abundant wealth of this oil-rich country.

The aspiring protestors here have been watching what’s happened in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen, and they want their turn. How many will be ready to march for their beliefs? Tomorrow, we will find out.