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Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma talks to anchor Lisa Mullins about the impact Bin Laden’s death may have on what some are calling the “Arab Spring.” Download MP3

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Lisa Mullins: Many say that al-Qaeda has already been left behind by the events unfolding in the Arab world in the past few months.  Joshua Landis directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.  Landis says that Bin Laden’s death undermines how extremist elements in Arab politics have been defeated by the U.S., but also by the Arab public.

Joshua Landis: What we’ve seen in the last 10 years since 9/11 is the Arab world in many ways has turned away from the extremism of Bin Laden.  Bin Laden has proven to be a failure.  Al-Qaeda has been a failure; and it’s been a failure for the Arabs.  The Arabs have taken a great thumping over the last decade, not only in their ability to move, but in the way the world looks at them and looks at Islamic extremism. The world has been very frightened and I think many Arabs have been frightened by it themselves.  What we’ve seen is a rush by the Muslim Brotherhood, the central political face of Islamic politics, to move towards the center, towards democracy, and Parliamentarism, as a way to get the power.  And instead of choosing Bin Laden they have moved towards the center, they’ve embraced in a sense, George Bush’s line of the   freedom agenda and democracy. And it has helping them move to the center of power and it’s helped this whole “Arab Spring” in a sense been powered by that, finding that voice on the part of the Arab masses for democracy, dignity, Parliamentarism.

Mullins: Sounds though like al-Qaeda then is feckless and we know that’s not true.

Landis: It isn’t true.  The phenomenon of Bin Laden, and fundamentalism, and extremism is certainly not dead in the Middle East.  And that big question of religious pluralism and how to get along on a religious question in the Middle East is far from over. I mean we’re seeing that in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, where Minoritarian governments are still hang-on-to-power, at least in Syria, where the Alawite minority, a Shi’ite offshoot is hanging onto power; and minorities from Christians to Drus[? 2:09], to Ismailis are clinging to this Minoritarian rule because they’re frightened.  They’re frightened and they claim to be frightened of Islamic fundamentalism.

Mullins: Okay, but let’s look at where among specifically those places right now where there are protests that have been gaining some steam.  For instance, Yemen, we look at Yemen today and there are activists who are still protesting on the streets, being told through Facebook in fact, don’t carry pictures of Osama Bin Laden, don’t have posters, banners of him because then it’s going to give more credence to the president of Yemen’s claims that really the protestors are all about terrorism and that they’re aligned with Bin Laden.

To what extent are the protestors who are calling for democracy and more freedom, to what extent are there al-Qaeda elements in that?

Landis: There are al-Qaeda elements, there’s no doubt about it.  And we’ve seen this is  places like Syria, others where there’s been shooting from protestors.  Not many, but there are armed elements out there that threaten to give a bad name to the whole “Arab Spring,” but the dominate voice has been a voice of liberalism. And in the Syria the slogan has been [speaking Arabic] — “Peacefully, peacefully.”  Now, that’s a line that is being, as you say, brought by outside — many people in the West, particularly liberals, who are trying to keep this message and keep the protests on message, which is democracy, peaceful…and keep it away from this tendency to go extreme or to allow Jihadists a role.  And we’ve seen wherever that voice popped up it’s been camped down.

Mullins: Oh, there’s no guarantee that the revolutions, the new governments that come in are going to succeed.  And if they don’t succeed that makes for in some cases, softer states.  Softer states are gateways for al-Qaeda.

Landis: Absolutely, and as we’ve seen in the past, failed states are really the breeding ground for extremism.  And we’re seeing, one of the things we’re really seeing is a great sorting out in the Middle East.  States like Egypt, Tunisia are united and they’ve become nation states where the nation has been able to take over and demand responsibility by the state. In other places, places such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, deeply divided societies, religiously, ethnically, those society are gonna have a much harder time developing a national consensus and producing responsible democratic governments.  And we’ve seen that in Iraq.  And when the country splits, civil war, the ground opens up for extremist movements.

Mullins: Joshua Landis directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.  You can find a link to his blog, Syria Comment, on our website, theworld.org.  Thanks a lot.

Landis: Thank you.

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