The 2003 invasion and conquest of Iraq did not lead to democratic and unified state.  Presently, the former Iraq is divided into three areas–Shia, Sunni, and Kurd.  The Kurds have a state in all but name.  Tensions have arisen between the Kurds and the Shia government over oil, and will probably do so again.  The Sunnis no longer have the dominate political position, the civil conflict between the Sunnis and Shia resulted in thousands of causalities.  American money bought off the Sunni insurgents, but it could explode again.  After all the US expenditure in blood and money, the Shia government just may end up in the Iranian camp when the US departs.  In all of this, it is rarely mentioned in the western press of the Iraqi Christians being driven from their homes.

Lebanon is the poster child for sectarian divisions.  Before the 1970’s civil war, Lebanon was ruled by community strong men who divided up the offices and influence of the country.  In 1958, the US landed troops in Lebanon to quell a potential outbreak of war.  The civil war that followed twenty years later has left divisions that have been papered over by various agreements.  But the one man one vote principal still does not rule Lebanese politics.  Rivalries are alive and well here.

Jordan is a bomb waiting to explode.  There is a divide between the tribes that support the king and the urban citizens that trace their descent from Palestinians.   Jordan may seem unconcerned about the event unfolding, but an outbreak of spring fever could well see city dwellers confronting a monarch and his tribal supported army.

As for the internet sponsored democracy, Tunisia remains in flux and the prospects of a new constitution seems further away.  Who runs Tunis?  Not the people so far.  Egypt may have removed Mubarak (and there are a lot of complaints about the US failing to support the dictator), but the government is still run by the military.  In the wake of promised elections, what do you think would happen if an anti-American government was elected by popular vote?  Three billion dollars buys a lot of military influence.  The recent attacks upon the Christians is also a foretaste of things to come.

As for the example of “humanitarian military intervention,” Libya certainly should be kept front and center every time someone wants to jump into Syria.  The fear of massacres that did not occur is far outweighed by the thousands of dead and wounded in the civil war that is.  For those with a little more knowledge about Libya, they would also point out that this civil war has also elements of tribal and regional flavor.

Civil war is real in Syria.  With each day of confrontation between the government and the rebels, bitterness and resentment grows.  The chants of “peaceful” ring hollow as the underlying desire for retribution and reprisals thrives.  Revolutions rarely end in a peaceful transition.  They are marked by death–often widespread–and by destruction or confiscation of property.  If only 5% of Syria’s population (around 500,000) become radicalized, sectarian warfare will win out as citizens will align themselves with their coreligionists.  Once loose, real as well as imagined insults will be avenged.  There is going to be a lot more than 1500 dead when the bullets stop flying.