The Likelihood of US Troops Leaving Iraq

Marco Werman talks with Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the issues surrounding the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and whether it’s really likely to happen by the end of this year, as mandated by the current agreement between the US and Iraq.

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Marco Werman: I’m Marco Werman and this is The World, a coproduction of the BBC World Service, PRI and WGBH Boston.  If the US road to Iraq began on 9/11 then the 10th anniversary falls on what could be the twilight of the American military presence there. Some 46,000 US troops remain in the country, but they’re all due to leave by the end of this year.  That’s according to an agreement the Bush administration negotiated with the Iraqi government a few years back.  Whether that will actually happen isn’t clear.  The Obama administration reportedly wants to keep between 3,000-5,000 US troops in Iraq beyond this year. Jon Alterman directs the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.  Jon, what are the facts on the ground in Iraq that support Obama’s call for keeping troops there?

Jon Alterman: There’s a wide-spread sense not only among Americans, but among many Iraqis that the complete withdrawal of American troops in Iraq would lead Iraq to fall into chaos, to more of the sectarian strife and the killings that we saw several years ago. I think there’s a sense that everybody has that there shouldn’t be a permanent US presence in Iraq, but a sense that Iraq is not quite ready to walk on its own and having a residual training force is in the interest not only of the United States, but more importantly, the interest of Iraqis.

Werman: Regardless of the number of troops that are desired by President Obama and military officials in this country, it’s ultimately that’s up to the Iraqi government, so what is the likelihood that Iraq will allow any US troops to remain at the end of this year?

Alterman: Iraqis have been telling Americans all along that they want to renegotiate that agreement.  At first there was an argument that well, we just have to go through the prime ministerial elections and then once we get through that political hurdle then we will arrange for the Americans to be here for longer. And then there’s the sense well, we’re working with our coalition politics and well, we have to [inaudible 1:50] in and you know, some of the people, the Shia nationalists who are tied in some ways to Iran and so on, and so on.  There’s always been another reason why the deal couldn’t be made, and when I’ve talked to the Americans who’ve been negotiating with the Iraqis, they say it’s not like the Iraqi government is holding out because they want to get something from us, they’re holding out because they can’t reach a deal on their side for what the Iraqi position should be.  And if they can’t agree on that then you can’t make an agreement from the American side.

Werman: And as far as some analysts’ prediction that Iraq will fall into chaos if there are no US troops there, how do you see it?  Is that likely?

Alterman: I think it’s a crapshoot and ultimately depends on how much of a risk are you willing to take.  The other part of that question though is how much could the United States really do with a small troop presence if things started to go south?  I don’t see any circumstances under which the US would reintroduce a large number of troops.  I don’t see any circumstances under which a small number of troops, a few thousand troops could make that much of a difference on the ground if things got worse. But you certainly could see if people said there’s nobody there, there’s no holds barred that things could slip out of control and the question is is that complete unacceptable?  Is it, are you willing to take a 5% chance, a 20% chance?  And what is the kind of American troop presence and the roles for American troops that would minimize the possibility that things in Iraq would start to unravel?

Werman: Will US politics affect any of this?  I mean Obama campaigned on the promise of end the Iraq war and with a presidential election coming up again next year will that dynamic change any of this?

Alterman: The people I know who work on Iraq in the US government are just dismayed that Americans seem to have forgotten a better Iraq; they seem to have lost any interest in Iraq.  I can’t see this becoming a large issue. It seems to me that where the political campaign is going is very much toward domestic issues, toward budget issues.  The interesting thing is that overseas people pay tremendous attention to the domestic aspects of American policy and their implications overseas.  Foreign audiences study the impact of those domestic decisions on the US role in the world.  I haven’t heard a lot of discussion in the presidential campaign about that issue of the American role in the world.  It is clearly at a potential inflection point with dramatic consequences not for the US position in the Gulf, but all through the world.

Werman: John Alterman, a senior fellow and director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.  Thank you, Jon.

Alterman: Thank you, Marco.

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