What’s at Stake in Egypt

The elections in Egypt have exposed deep rifts between the ruling Military Council and various opposition groups. Anchor Lisa Mullins discusses what’s at stake with Steven Cook, of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Lisa Mullins: Steven Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and he’s the author of the book “The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square”. Steven Cook, from your own perspective as somebody who has watched what’s been unfolding in Egypt up close, what is the significance of these parliamentary elections and what’s at stake for Egypt itself?

Steven Cook: Well, it’s significant on two levels. First, after last week’s terrible violence in Tahrir Square and the political divisions it seemed to have been emerging during that time, it is inspiring to see many Egyptians go out to the polling places; that these polls have for the most part been peaceful; people have been respectful for each other. More broadly, the elections are the very beginning of this new phase of Egyptian politics in which Egyptians are going to build a new political system. There is much hope for a more democratic and open system, and that’s why so many people have turned up to vote today.

Mullins: Because the parliamentarians who are elected are going to be shaping, writing basically, a new constitution for Egypt. Despite the elections though, as you know, the Military Council – the ruling Council seems to want to hang on to political power. Can it do so?

Cook: Well, the Military has promulgated a series of what’s called ‘super constitutional principles’ that are intended to enshrine a role for the military into the constitution. It is going to be hard for them to do that in the way that they have envisioned given the protests of last week and given the fact that this is setting up to be a popularly elected parliament, free and fair elections with a popular mandate. There are many Egyptians who support the supreme council – the armed forces, but importantly, they don’t support the military re-creating another military-dominated political order in Egypt.

Mullins: Steven, I think, and tell me if you think this is fair to say, that you have not placed a lot of stock in the idea that Egypt’s military was preparing for democracy.

Cook: No. Democracy in Egypt is a threat in many ways to the core interest of the Egyptian armed forces which has a vast economic empire which wants to remain the repository of the state’s legitimacy, authority and power, and which has a very different conception of what stability looks like in Egypt as opposed to a, more democratic, uncertain political system which is likely to occur as a result of these elections.

Mullins: The polls are saying that it looks like Islamist groups are making a fairly strong showing in Egypt’s parliamentary elections. Is that something that should be worrisome to those who are looking toward a democratic Egypt in the future?

Cook: Well, Egypt’s Islamist groups have done very well and I’m not sure that anybody should be terribly surprised by this. It’s unclear what the Islamists’ intentions actually are. They have become adept at leveraging the language of reform and political change and positioning themselves as a force for modernization and democratization. But, ultimately, this is an empirical question. The Islamists have never held power; they have never accumulated power in a way that they are likely to in this next parliament. So, we’ll just have to see.

Mullins: All right. Steven Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His latest book is called “The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square”. Thanks a lot, Steven.

Cook: My pleasure.

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