Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad’s Remaining Options

If Syria’s president were to step down, it’s not clear where he would flee.

Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy talks with host Lisa Mullins about the options still open for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

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Lisa Mullins: Violence continues in Syria where protest have weakened the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Turkey’s government today raised the prospect of creating a buffer zone inside Syria to protect civilians who might try to flee across the border. If Syria’s president were to step down, it’s not clear where he would flee. Syria expert Andrew Tabler is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He spent two years working as a media consultant for Syrian charities and first lady Al-Assad. These days Tabler says president Assad’s options are rapidly dwindling.

Andrew Tabler: Previously we thought he could run to Qatar and the Emirates. That now seems to be cut off but in the end he could always run to Tehran because the Iranian’s are his biggest ally and that’s a place were he could live out the rest of his life if he’s deposed.

Mullins: Would it matter to Washington where he goes as long as he leaves?

Tabler: No, they don’t care. They just want him out of there and they want to have a leader in place that is willing to cut a political deal and lead to a democratic transition as outlined by the European countries and the Turks and of course by President Obama last August.

Mullins: And is there any appetite for bringing this man, if he does indeed leave, or if he is apprehended to the international criminal court or to seek justice in one way or another?

Tabler: I think that we’re heading in that direction. Until now that’s been an option which has been put on the back burner because they were hoping that Assad would exit on his own and that would give him an inducement to leave. But as his options dwindle and he continues to hold on I think the ICC indictment is looking increasingly likely.

Mullins: Is Bashar al-Assad, as you know him or have known him in the past, someone who would be inclined to fight to the bitter end like Gaddafi?

Tabler: It’s very hard to say. My inclination is yes but Bashar al-Assad is first and foremost a very unstable individual. I think the word that best describes the regime in Syria is moody. It’s very difficult to decipher him whether you have been in the country working there or if you are even a U.S. diplomat or a foreign diplomat who has met with Assad. It’s very hard to figure out why on the one hand Bashar promises to do one thing but then ends up either not doing it or doing completely the opposite and I think that pattern will continue the rest of the days of reign.

Mullins: Is that moody? Is it unstable in particular?

Tabler: It’s a moodiness. It’s a kind of ruthlessness that I think for too long a lot of Western diplomats just simply papered over. He is not his father. His father was a brutal dictator and carried out one of the worst massacres in the history of the Middle East but he was a more straightforward person and he would very seldomly say yes to anything you put in front of him but when he did say yes you could bank on it as a very famous U.S. official has said recently. Bashar is completely different.

Mullins: Could there be some kind of a political deal where Bashar al-Assad of Syria would not be cornered but where he steps down the way that the president of Yemen appears to be doing right now, even to the surprise of many?

Tabler: It’s difficult because of the minority nature of the regime. These kind of scenarios have been presented to Assad over the last few months and he has rejected them. I don’t expect he will go for them now but you never know. That would be a much better end to this then the looming scenario we have on our hands of this sectarian war breaking out in this part of the Middle East.

Mullins: I wonder if you have any other thoughts, Andrew, on why he feels as though he could survive when an increasing amount before him have not.

Tabler: Because for some reason he still believes he can shoot his way out of this crisis.

Mullins: So did Gaddafi.

Tabler: That’s true and in the end he went down. The problem is that in the past that worked but that didn’t work with a country with these kind of demographics. Huge parts of the Syrian population are below the age of 25 and whether he goes down now or whether he goes down later, simple fact of the matter is his regime is failing. It’s systematic failure and the problem for everyone now is that the western countries, Turkey, the Arab countries, they have realized this and they know that the longer he holds on that the bloody and more sectarian this is going to get.

Mullins: Andrew Tabler, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He’s the author of the newly released book In the Lions Den, an Eyewitness Account of Washtington’s battle with Syria. Thank you Andrew.

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