Russians Plan Another Protest March

Russia’s president tried to soothe tensions in the country Thursday with promises of reform.

In his last State of the Nation speech as president, Dmitry Medvedev outlined several steps to simplify Russian election rules and give voters more power.

The promises come just two days ahead of the next big demonstrations in Moscow.

Thousands of people are expected to protest Sunday against alleged fraud in the parliamentary elections earlier this month.

Anchor Lisa Mullins speaks to Julia Ioffe, Foreign Policy magazine Moscow correspondent, about the unrest in Russia ahead of a big opposition rally planned for Saturday.

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Lisa Mullins: I’m Lisa Mullins and this is The World, a coproduction of the BBC World Service, PRI and WGBH in Boston. Today, Russia’s president tried to soothe tensions in the country with a promise of reform. In his last state of the nation speech as president, Dmitry Medvedev outlined several steps to simplify Russian election rules and to give voters more power. The promises come just two days ahead of the next big election demonstrations in Moscow. Tens of thousands of people are expected to attend the protests Saturday against alleged fraud in the last Russian elections earlier this month. Julia Ioffe is Foreign Policy magazine’s Moscow correspondent. Is what Dmitry Medvedev said today likely to placate anybody, especially as it comes just as this big protest is happening on Saturday?

Julia Ioffe: You know, I don’t think it’s going to placate anybody really because since September 24 when he and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that they would simply switch jobs come March, Medvedev has been seen as a very weak figure, as an extremely lame duck. And the reforms are seen as too little too late. The fact that the dim elections have already passed, it’s been almost a month, and there won’t be another set of elections for another five years, so that coupled with the fact that it’s coming from the mouth of a very weak political figure that nobody really takes seriously doesn’t instill much hope.

Mullins: So here we have a weakened president. We have someone also who has been somewhat on the fringe of popular culture of social media in Russia, who seems to be gaining in popularity; this is a man named Alexei Navalny, who was released after 15 days in jail. This happened yesterday when he was released. He has been blogging against the government and in doing so he’s really captured the limelight. How come?

Ioffe: Navalny is a very talented politician. He’s also the only competent effective promising, viable figure that the opposition has. The reason that so many people have come out to protest, the reason that United Russia could barely garner 50 percent of the vote even with massive fraud, a lot of that has to do with the grassroots work that he’s been doing over the past year in cultivating the image of United Russia as a party of crooks and thieves, which is a phrase he coined.

Mullins: This is Medvedev’s party.

Ioffe: Yes, this Medvedev’s and it was created to support Putin.

Mullins: So does that mean that Navalny is a politician, a possible opposition leader because this is a man who is popular, but he has many detractors who say he’s a nationalist, and for them being a nationalist is synonymous with being a skinhead or a fascist. What does he stand for?

Ioffe: Navalny’s main issue is fighting corruption, which takes up most of his time mostly because there’s so very much of it in Russia because it’s becoming not just a thing that greases the wheels in an ineffective system, but something that hobbles the system, slows it down. Another issue is the abuse of power and privilege — things like VIP sirens on official cars that allow the cars that have them to circumvent all traffic laws, which often causes deadly accidents which are then covered up, and the police help in the coverup. Another issue is dealing with migration. Russia has the second largest migrant population in the world after the US. The rate at which Russia, especially Moscow has seen the influx of migrants from former Soviet republics in central Asia, from Russian republics in the north caucuses has been really big. So this is an actual issue that needs dealing with. The problem is in dealing with them Navalny often finds himself speaking alongside the more radical and actually more racist figures. And I think Navalny underestimated the size of his natural constituency, which is the middle class, the white collar workers, what is called in Russia the office plankton. And I think by reaching out to the nationalists, which is very organized, very anti-Kremlin group, even though it’s a very motley group, think he was trying to expand his electoral base. And doing so however, he has alienated many of the more natural constituency which is again, lawyers, doctors, accountants, consultant, designers, journalists, etc.

Mullins: So would there be, just to help us understand what that all amounts to in terms of maybe our concept of politics, what does it mean?

Ioffe: Here’s the thing: Russian liberals are not European liberals or even American liberals. Russians are far more conservative on the whole than their European counterparts. And Navalny is the classic Russian liberal, which on the American spectrum would put him somewhere in the kind of moderate Republican territory. If it’s any kind of barometer, in the 2008 election, observing it from Russia, they told me he supported McCain rather than Obama.

Mullins: So on Saturday then to what extent can you expect that Medvedev and Putin will be watching and even counting the numbers of people who show up at this protest? What’s at stake for them?

Ioffe: Well, there’s nothing at stake for Medvedev because Medvedev is a political nonentity. I think Putin will be waiting to see how many people come out and to see if the very small concessions mostly in words that he’s made over the last two weeks will have been enough to ease up pressure on the system without him having to concede too much power. As for Navalny, if people don’t fall back asleep after the March presidential elections I think you can expect to hear much more from him and maybe even see him as the next president of Russia.

Mullins: Julia Ioffe, Moscow correspondent for Foreign Policy magazine, thank you.

Ioffe: Thanks so much.

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