Jason Margolis

Jason Margolis

Jason Margolis is a Boston-based reporter who regularly files stories throughout the U.S. about politics, economics, immigration issues, and environmental matters.

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Republican Candidates Court Miami’s Cuban Vote

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A popular campaign stop: Cafe Vesailles in Miami's Little Havana (Photo: Jason Margolis)

A popular campaign stop: Cafe Versailles in Miami's Little Havana (Photo: Jason Margolis)

There’s a political truism in Miami: Cuban Americans always vote Republican.

But four years ago, that voting bloc started to fray. Candidate Obama captured about a third of the Cuban vote in Miami.

Now the right-wing Miami Cuban establishment has a warning for their community: President Obama is soft on the Castro brothers.

Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen spoke in Miami this week at a Mitt Romney campaign event. Switching between Spanish and English, Ros-Lehtinen said every time President Obama mentions Cuba it’s to explain why he’s giving further economic concessions to the Castro regime.

Ros-Lehtinen is referring to the Obama administration’s easing of travel restrictions and remittances to Cuba. Critics call the policies an economic boon for the Castros.

“So what you have now is an emboldened regime that feels that they can do whatever they want because they’re not facing any consequences,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, director of the US-Cuba Democracy PAC.

“There has to be consequences to certain bad actions: taking an American hostage, huge waves of repression. If they think they can do it, and they’re going to get this inflow of hard currency, then they’re going to increase the repression and continue doing so.”

Mauricio Claver-Carone introducing Mitt Romney in Miami (Photo: Jason Margolis)

The Republican presidential candidates are seizing on this. Mitt Romney spoke in downtown Miami this week.

“Negotiations are not a matter of giving and hope, they’re a matter of giving and getting in return. This president has done something which is characteristic of his presidency and that is he turns and gives. And says that everybody in the world has the same interest and so people will give back to us. He’s wrong.”

But polls suggest a majority of Cuban Americans actually favor the Obama administration policies toward Cuba.

Uva de Aragón likes the policies and visits the island. She was born in Cuba and left as a young girl. De Aragón recently retired as the associate director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

“I think the more open Cuba is, the more people who travel to Cuba, the more money you send to Cubans: the more you empower them, the more they’re knowledgeable. The people who travel and who bring magazines or stories, or whatever are an important source of information. So I’m very favorable to anything that opens up the island.”

De Aragón sees a contradiction between what many Cuban-Americans say and what they do. For instance, she said when you ask them about remittances, they respond this way: “Yes, of course I’m in favor of the embargo.”

But De Aragón said when you ask the same people if they send their family money back in Cuba, they’ll say, “Of course, he’s my brother!”

Cuban American Joe Garcia doesn’t mince words about the hardliners on Cuban policy and the Republican candidates courting them.

“What you have going on here is a clown show and the audience is filled with clowns.”

Garcia ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2008 and 2010 as a Democrat. He says the president’s Cuba policies have been very effective assisting dissidents and expanding civil society. He said the hard-line hasn’t worked. Garcia called the rightwing position toward Cuba a religion, not a rational policy.

“Part of the problem is that we’re engaged in revenge politics, which of course feels very nice, right? There’s a warmth and a heat that is driven by the absolute loathing of the Castro regime, which I share in. But later in the week someone will call for the 82nd Airborne to invade Cuba and I’m sure Gingrich will up the ante by calling for a nuking of the Havana suburbs just to teach Fidel a lesson.”

That hasn’t happened. But Newt Gingrich did call this week for American support for a “Cuban Spring.”

David Cardenas, left, and Giancarlo Sopo, right (Photo: Jason Margolis)

Some in the under-30 crowd here say all the bad blood and bickering over travel restrictions and remittances is a distraction.

I met David Cardenas and Giancarlo Sopo for dinner in downtown Miami. Cardenas is active in the Republican party; Sopo is with the Democrats. They have small disagreements about travel restrictions, but they say it’s not worth arguing about.

“I think on the big issues relating to Cuba, in the final analysis, Cubans overwhelming agree with one and other,” said Sopo.

“I completely agree with that,” said Cardena. “I think Cubans are united as a community, united in their policy positions toward Cuba.”

The trade embargo has overwhelming bipartisan support here. And in Congress and the White House.

Cardenas and Sopo are able to break bread together, perhaps because Cuba is not the focus of their lives.

“I would say that Cuban Americans of our generation are not single-issue voters, much in the same way our grandparents and some of our parents are,” said Cardenas.

“I would agree with what David is saying,” said Cardenas. “Cuba was much closer to their lives. They had just left the country, many of them still had hopes of going back. I think David and I, we see Miami as our home.”

And that’s where their real disagreement begins: What domestic economic policies are best for their home?

Discussion

9 comments for “Republican Candidates Court Miami’s Cuban Vote”

  • Anonymous

    A tonal correction to your assessment of public opinion:

    Support for the trade embargo is 56% to 44% among Cuban Americans, according to the annual poll by Florida International University, hardly “overwhelming”.   Cuban Americans, however, flip in their support for ending all travel restrictions, 57% to 43%.   

    A 2009 Gallup Poll showed a majority of Americans favor ending the embargo, 51% to 36%.  The end of all travel restrictions was supported by 64%, with only 27% wanting to maintain them.  

    The White House and Congress are out of step.

    Even among Republicans, Ron Paul’s message of normalization with Cuba could find surprising support.  

    Gallup showed 60% of Americans in favor, only 30% opposed.  FIU shows  Cuban Americans were 58% for, 40% against

    John McAuliff
    Fund for Reconciliation and Development

    • http://twitter.com/jasonmargolis jasonmargolis

      Thanks for your well-researched and thoughtful post, John. 

      Two quick defenses of my story, however: 

      – The story does indeed point out that a majority of Cuban Americans favor lifting travel restrictions. 

      – According to the FIU poll you cite, yes, 56 percent of Cuban Americans support the trade embargo. But only 39 percent favor more trade and investment. That’s a 17-percent swing, which is indeed significant. Further, over the past six years, I’ve spent time in Miami conducting interviews with Cuban Americans. In dozens of discussions, both formal and informal, I’ve met very few Cuban Americans, from all sides of the political stripe, who say they want to lift the trade embargo. That’s just what I’ve uncovered. So while “overwhelming” might not be the best descriptor — and it is a term that has no exact statistical definition — we felt comfortable with the statement. This all said, your argument is quite valid.  

      Best, 
      Jason Margolis

  • Anonymous

    Jason, I am amazed and honored that the author reads and so quickly responds with substance to a comment .

    Let me tease out the issue a bit more.  It was only by implication that you said that a majority favored lifting travel restrictions. “But polls suggest a majority of Cuban Americans actually favor the Obama administration policies toward Cuba.”  I wanted to lift up the specific issue because the questions at both debates blew it by not driving down into the concrete issue of the candidates’ positions on Cuban American travel where their views would have been in most dramatic contradiction with the sentiment of 61% of the community.  

    Given Newt’s worthy concern for illegal immigrant grandmothers, does he really want to return to the three year ban on Cuban American reunion with grandmothers?  Given Romney’s fondness for free enterprise, does he really want to stop the investment of capital and goods that are flowing from Florida to the emerging private sector?

    Republican Cuban Americans may make up a disproportionate share of anti-travel sentiment, but that is still only 39% of the community.   I hope you report on how Ron Paul does in the Cuban American precincts.  If he runs as well or better than in other parts of Florida, some reflection on voting behavior is in order and the Obama campaign will probably take note.  

    It is 56 to 44 (a 12% difference) on maintaining the embargo which is an obstacle to many things and has larger symbolic significance.  The issue of trade and investment is a subset and I am not sure where you find 39% in the FIU poll.  I don’t doubt your anecdotal evidence but that can be affected by your unscientific sample, and by respondents’ hesitance to personally and visibly dispute the politically and economically dominant opinion, especially at possible cost to themselves.  
    A stronger position on travel and the embargo will not hurt Obama among voters in Florida he  has the potential to get and could help him elsewhere, John

    • http://twitter.com/jasonmargolis jasonmargolis

      Hi John,

      Thanks for your note.

      To clarify, the original issue you had with this story was my qualification of Cuban American support in Miami for the “trade” embargo as “overwhelming.” I do state that according to polls, Cuban Americans in Miami support President Obama’s changes (which are the easing of travel restrictions and remittances).

      You can find the 39 percent figure, related to trade, in the FIU 2011 poll here: http://casgroup.fiu.edu/cri/pages.php?id=1696

      When the pollsters rephrase the embargo question, only 39 percent of respondents support expanded trade.

      In sum, people are free to interpret the polls however they will, but from my research, through dozens of interviews over the years and access to polls that we all have, the conclusion of this reporter is that Cuban Americans in Miami still largely support the trade embargo. Whether I should have said an “overwhelming” amount or “a strong majority,” that’s a judgement call that can be debated.

      Yes, it will be very interesting to see how Ron Paul does in Miami.

      Best,
      Jason

      PS: I enjoy responding to an interesting discussion!

  • Val Prieto

    With all due respect, citing polls, especially polls funded by organizations with an agenda like the Cuba Study Group, when it comes to Cuba policy is misleading at best. The true gauge of how Cuban-Americans view Cuba policy is painfully clear in who their elected officials are, and what said officials stand for.

    • http://twitter.com/jasonmargolis jasonmargolis

      Hi Val, 

      That’s a very worthwhile point and should be added to the discussion. That further supports the notion that Miami’s Cuban American strongly support the trade embargo.

      Thanks for bringing this up.

      Best, 
      Jason Margolis

      PS: Just to be 100 percent clear, I am not advocating for or arguing against the merits of the trade embargo. I’m just participating in the discussion about how Miami’s Cuban Americans view the issue.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/KLIY4CAAPLV2MQVR4IRTBIR3VU Kiven

    there is reason why the world’s longest nose mammal is the gop’s icon. because if you want to dig deep into an ass to kiss it. its would be the gop’s job!

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Matthew-W-Hall/1723611491 Matthew W. Hall

    Thank god I don’t live in Miami where I wouldn’t know what people were saying to me or about me. Bilingualism doesn’t work. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/7NK2K33CNSYJT3SWQYP646YQPI Count L.F. Chudzikiewicz herb.

    in David Cardenas is running in Jewish, Gay, Liberal Miami Beach! I wonder how his affiliation with CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANism is going to go over there! And, all this publicity about him being active in MIAMI, on the mainland, might not go over so big on the ISLAND city of MIAMI BEACH where he is running!