Israel’s Military Options for Iran

An Israeli military strike on Iran would be difficult, and would not destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

But that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen.

Israel says it would only reach for the military option as a last resort, but preparations have been in the works for years, according to defense expert, Austin Long.

Long told anchor Lisa Mullins that Israel has acquired an air fleet capable of long range operations.

“The aircraft are referred to as F16i and F15i, with the “I” actually standing for Israel, but some joke that it really should stand for Iran because they’ve been buying this force structure since the late ’90s essentially with the idea of potentially conducting operations against Iran.”

Long is an Assistant Professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

The Israelis would have to overcome problems of getting enough firepower to multiple targets, and overcoming Iranian air defenses.

Even then, the most likely outcome is only a partial success.

According to Long, Israelis acknowledge that the best result that they can hope for is to delay the Iranian nuclear project. They compare it to mowing the lawn, in fact says Long, “they refer to it as mowing the nuclear grass.”

That worries the US. “There’s always the potential,” says Long, “that Iranian retaliation will not be merely be limited to Israel”.

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Lisa Mullins: As you can hear the atmosphere in Israel is becoming heated amid we talk about possible Israeli attack on Iran. Of course Israeli officials aren’t saying too much about how such an attack might be carried out. Austin Long co-authored a study on Israel’s military options regarding Iran in a general of international security way back in 2007. He is now Assistant Professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Map out for us Austin, what the Israelis might be considering in Iran to the extent we know and how many targets there would be in Iran.

Austin Long: Sure the thing to remember about Israelis is that they purchased a lot of their air force structure with this target in mind. They have a fleet of about hundred and twenty five aircraft – US made F-16s and F-15s that are specially configured for long range strike operations. So you would be looking at some set of those hundred and twenty five being used to conduct a long range strike against Iran.

Mullins: So you are saying that the tailor made the fleet for a specific attack like this

Long: Exactly some attack against Iran. You know that the aircraft are referred to as F-16i and F-15i, with the “I” actually standing for Israel, but some joke that it really should stand for Iran.

Mullins: Now American officials are warning Israelis that this would not be an ‘in-out’ situation. This is not gonna be quick and easy. How come?

Long: I think in large part, because the American officials don’t want Israelis to do it but I think it also reflects the difference in how Israelis and the US think about the problem of Iran. Israelis particularly that are of the mind to conduct this kind if military operation are perfectly happy just setting the Iranian program back. The phrase I have heard form Israelis is “mowing the grass”, they refer to it as “mowing the nuclear grass”. Whereas the US thinks about, you know if you are going to do something you should do it in a very comprehensive way. So I think you know contrary to what US officials are saying you could do quite a bit of damage in a relatively short amount of time.

Mullins: A lot of Israelis are asking about causalities, presentual casualties among members of Israeli military, causalities among Iranians including citizens there. What would the fallout be if you can tell on terms of causality figures, how dangerous these operations might be and also the ecological fall out from an attack like this, if it happens.

Long: Sure, for the Israelis, you are clearly putting the pilots and potentially, you know, you include special operations personal on the ground you are putting the lots of a few hundred people at risk in the operation itself. The real issue is the material that’s used for uranium enrichment is in the form of uranium known as uranium hexafluoride. So you are talking the potential if this gets blasted high up in the atmosphere, for acid rain to be fairly widespread and fairly toxic as well as this uranium precipitate that’s a heavy metal so it’s radioactive and it’s toxic.

Mullins: And in an area that is fairly highly populated.

Long: Yes, the facility in Isfahan, where a lot of this is stored, is near a city of hundreds of thousands, I think more than a million people actually.

Mullins: Asutin, as we been hearing there are American officials who are trying to talk Israel out of attacking Iran, but I wonder if, you know, if the Americans are either planning covertly on being a part of it or expecting that they might have to finish what the Israelis themselves may not be finish because of capabilities.

Long: To my knowledge, that the US position both publicly and privately is the same which is ‘don’t do this’, bear in mind, we are talking this is going to be a military operation that quite likely will cross Iraqi’s air space which the US does not control anymore. But it still seem as some as somewhat affiliated with the US. It is going to using US made planes F-15s and F-16s. To the naked eye you can certainly forgive the Iranians for not seeing much difference between an Israeli strike and US strike. So there is always the potential that Iranian retaliation will not merely be limited to Israel.

Mullins: Alright thank you. Austin Long, Assistant Professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Thanks a lot.

Long: Thank you.

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