Poll Suggests Little Support from Israelis for a Go-It-Alone Strike on Iran

A new poll from the University of Maryland says that only 19 percent of Israelis support attacking Iran without the blessing of the US.

Anchor Marco Werman speaks with independent pollster Dahlia Scheindlin in Tel Aviv about the mood in Israel.

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Marco Werman: I’m Marco Werman and this is “The World” a co-production of the BBC World Service, PRI and WGBH Boston. President Obama welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House today, the two leaders spoke briefly to reporters about Iran. Suspicion that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon has led to calls in Israel for a pre-emptive military strike. Today President Obama reiterated that all options are on the table, but he also said he preferred to give economic sanctions and diplomacy time to work. Netanyahu stressed Israel’s right to defend itself and his countries close relationship with the United States.

Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran leaders know that too, you know, for them you’re the great Satan, we’re the little Satan. For them we are you, and you are us. And you know something Mr. President? At least on this last point, I think they’re right. We are you and you are us, we’re together.

Werman: Back home in Israel Netanyahu faces mixed opinions about a possible pre-emptive attack on Iran. A new poll from the University of Maryland says only 19% of Israelis support attacking Iran without the blessing of the US. Dahlia Scheindlin says she is not surprised by those numbers, she is an independent pollster in Tel Aviv. Scheindlin says Israelis have developed an increasingly pragmatic view of the issue.

Dahlia Scheindlin: They’re saying integrally, ‘let’s not go at this unilaterally’. We’re, the Israelis are realistic about where that would lead. The same poll, by the way, shows that a very clear minority of Israelis think that such a strike would actually do anything that would really dramatically set back or cancel out Iran’s program. So I mean, the thing is Israelis are quite skeptical about what, you know, a unilateral strike would actually accomplish, I think they feel much safer in terms of the effectiveness and in terms of Israel’s position in the world, to move ahead with this kind of thing with the US. And I think in general they’re not necessarily convinced that war is the way to go.

Werman: So in that polling question the key condition would be that Israelis don’t support an attack on Iran without US support, now; if the US were backing Israel?

Scheindlin: You still have only about half the population 42% to support it in that case. In other words, at this point what we’re seeing is the leadership that’s really talking about this, and, you know, putting this option on the table in a much forceful way than the public, you know. So there’s a bit of an inconsistency here, and by the way that’s not the first time we’re seeing this kind of inconsistency between the leadership and the public in Israel, the public being a little more restrained a little more pragmatic, you know, a little more concerned for Israel’s position in the world and a little more focussed on multi-lateral, you know, having the cooperation of the rest of the world, and the government taking a more hard-line approach.

Werman: So if many Israelis see President Obama as more moderate than their own leaders on the Iran issue, does that mean Netanyahu and his more hawkish position are loosing ground among Israelis?

Scheindlin: I wouldn’t go that far, I think Israelis it’s, you know, they’re a little bit caught in-between. They certainly realize that Obama is more restrained, and I think they see him as measured and balanced, but I think that they are, that they know that there’s room for both. I think that they understand that there’s room for Obama’s, sort of measured, restrained, you know, let’s see how the diplomatic side works and the economic sanctions. But I think that they’re perfectly happy they have someone like Netanyahu in office who carries the hardline torch on the issue.

Werman: Isn’t that kind of an odd disconnect on a seriously consequential issue though?

Scheindlin: Well, I think it’s, no I don’t think it’s really a disconnect in people’s minds. Again, it’s not that they’re overwhelmingly in favor of Obama’s policy, I think it’s more that they appreciate that they have a balance right now, between the possibility of, you know, the more restrained position. Certainly Israelis would rather avoid war. I don’t think there’s any great illusion that if there was a strike there would be a counter-strike. And if you do see a contradiction there, I’m not sure it’s a contradiction or not, because again, I think Israelis see it as more of a balance, maybe even complementary relationship between the two.

Werman: Israelis have faced existential crises since even before the founding of the state of Israel, in recent history it was Iraq with SCUDs, in the 80′s and 90′s before that it was Syria, how does Iran getting a nuclear bomb compare with past crises do you think?

Scheindlin: I mean, you know, it’s hard to measure in hind-sight but, I mean, I definitely think that Israel is used to the notion of and existential threat it’s part of our lives, all the time. for Israeli-Jews it’s a very, very prominent feature of, you know, it forms pretty much everything in their lives. There’s always the public threat that dominates the public discourse. So right now, it feels really big because it’s Iran and we’re talking about nuclear weapons, but I feel like at each phase, during each decade, when there was some major existential threat, each threat was viewed as a potential existential threat. And the truth is, I think among Israelis, specially, certainly from what we’re seeing in the poll numbers over the last couple of years, is that they’re becoming in someways increasingly resilient towards the threat itself. So I sort of feel like every decade we have –the– existential threat and then the resilience grows and the Israelis sort of say to themselves “Oh, yeah, this is the threat we will be able to cope with it eventually” and you know, it becomes assimilated in the way we think.

Werman: Independent pollster Dahlia Scheindlin speaking with us from Tel Aviv. Thank you so much.

Scheindlin: My pleasure.

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