China Eclipsing US Economically, Militarily is ‘Fantasy’

Jeffrey Bader was President Obama’s top aide on China up until last year. He served as a special assistant to President Obama, and as the senior director for East Asian Affairs on the National Security Council until April 2011.

Bader tells host Marco Werman that some analysts have exaggerated the threat that China poses to the United States.

“The notion that we are about to be eclipsed, we’re about to become the number two power, I think that that is frankly a fantasy,” Bader says.

In his new book, Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy. Bader describes how China is attempting to reposition itself on the global stage.

“They’ve been clearly unnerved by the Arab Spring. They’re much more comfortable with stable places than with places in turmoil,” Bader says. “They see western interventions in places like Syria through the prism of their own victimhood, their own history.”

But Bader adds that he thinks China is showing some adaptation, and doesn’t want to be the last man resisting a change of power in places like Syria, especially since that would involve paying the price with new governments that come into power.

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Marco Werman: I’m Marco Werman. This is “The World”. China has seen explosive growth and profound changes in recent years and Jeffrey Bader has had a front row seat to watch it all unfold. Bader was one of President Obama’s China Policy Architects until he left the White House a year ago. His new book is called “Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy”. In it Jeffrey Bader describes a China slowly repositioning itself on the global stage. That repositioning is evident, he say, in today’s news that China is efficiently urging its ally, Syria, to abide by a UN sponsored peace plan.

Jeffrey Bader: They’ve been clearly unnerved by the Arab Spring. They’re much more comfortable with stable places than with places in turmoil. Syria, they, along with the Russians, vetoed a resolution that had a 13 to 2 vote in the Security Council a month or two ago. I think that put them on the wrong side of some of their key friends in the region. The Arab League strongly supported the resolution and, more important perhaps, so did Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a key strategic partner for China. I think China has reflected about the strategic harm that they may have been doing to themselves as a result of these alignments I mentioned and they are trying to reposition themselves. So that’s quite interesting what they have done in the last twenty four hours. They don’t want to irritate the Saudis and the Arab League. I think that’s what it’s about.

Werman: What can Washington actually do to get China’s real sincere help in dealing with Syria?

Bader: Well, I think the main thing is to get them supportive of an UN Security Council process and to use whatever leverage they have in Damascus to try to move towards a transition. The Chinese natural instinct is to respect the sovereignty of states. They were the, in their view, the victims of imperialism and colonialism in the 19th and the first half of the 20th century, so they see Western interventions in places like Syria through the prism of their own victim-hood, their own history. So what they need to do, in this case, is to overcome that and to understand that this is a part of the world where change is coming whether they like it or not and the question is whether they want to be on the side of change with the benefits that come from that or want to be last man standing, resisting and have to pay the price with the new governments that come into power and I think they’re showing some adaptation now.

Werman: We learned last week from analysts, a Wang Jisi, a Chinese Foreign Policy insider that the senior leadership of the Chinese government distrust Washington to a dangerous degree and according to Wang Jisi the period of China keeping a low profile is over. Is this paranoia building? Are we indeed entering a new, more dangerous relationship with China?

Bader: Well, I know Wang Jisi very well. The piece that he wrote laid out what I view as the harder edged positions with the Chinese leadership in terms of distrust of the United States. I don’t really think that it’s becoming more profound. It’s real, but it’s not the total story.

Werman: It’s true though that China’s been running a healthy trade surplus over the US for years and many believe their military is much more robust in most estimates, so on some levels it’s got to be undeniable to you that China is eclipsing the US and that’s got to create some mistrust.

Bader: I wouldn’t use the word “eclipse”. I agree with the premise that China is rising, that China is becoming more a factor in global affairs, that the gap between the US and China, whether it’s in the economic realm or the military realm, is narrowing, but one has to start with how big the gap is to begin with. Per capita of the GDP in the US is something like ten times per capita GDP in China. So if that gap is closing, well, that’s a long time to close. They are trying to gain the stronger position in the Western Pacific within let’s say a thousand miles of their coast which they see as defensive, but from our point of view, makes it harder for us to defend our allies and to conduct operations. So yes, there are definitely some trends that we have to be aware of, but the notion that we are about to be eclipsed, we’re about to become the number 2 power, I think that that is, frankly, a fantasy.

Werman: There are new overtures in Burma right now toward Democracy and with major efforts from the Obama administration to push the government of Burma to open up. I’m wondering if you think North Korea will see Burma as a model and also want to come in from the cold.

Bader: I think that’s a fascinating question. The short answer is no, but there still are interesting analogies between the two. Both very repressive countries for the last several decades. Both countries that have relied heavily on thier relationships with China, and in Burma’s case, they seem to have made a decision that they’re prepared to take some risks internally in order to have more varied international partners among the US, the Europeans than they’ve had in the past.The North Koreans, similarly, have a relationship of heavy dependence on China which they’re not comfortable with, but I think the difference is the North Korean regime, as difficult, as bad, as repressive as the Burmese regime is, it has been somewhat exposed to the outside world mostly through it’s membership in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It hasn’t been as locked down as North Korea. North Korea really has a tiny group of Communist Party codgers who have run that place with an iron fist for sixty years. For them to make a decision to open up even slightly just seems contrary to their DNA, but I agree with the premise of your question that sitting there, they’ve got to take a look at what’s going on in Burma and see if there’s some relevance to their own situation.

Werman: Jeffrey Bader, I’ve got to say something we journalists find frustrating is interviewing diplomats and you are a diplomat. I mean diplomats are trained not to give deep details and to hide their cards. There’s got to be some great story that you can share with us.

Bader: I’ve had a wonderful time in the White House the last few years. The experience with President Obama has been simply extraordinary. I think he has brought tremendous focus to Asia. He spent his formative years in Indonesia, and I recall when he met with President Yudhoyono of Indonesia. We had breakfast in Toronto back in 2002 and the Indonesian press came in and President Obama greeted them in Bahasa, the language of Indonesia. Usually when an American speaks an Asian language, there’s usually some giggling and laughter as if “isn’t it funny how the American is trying to sound like an Asian”. No laughter, no giggling at all, and President Obama leaned over and said to President Yudhoyono, “You know I speak Bahasa with a perfect accent,” which struck me as uncharacteristically immodest for President Obama and then he added seconds later, “Of course, I have a vocabulary of a six year old.” So it was a great ride.

Werman: Jeffrey Bader served as a specialist assistant to President Obama. His new book is called “Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy”. Thank you very much.

Bader: Thank you, Marco.

Werman: We have a video extra from my interview with Jeffrey Bader where he tells us about an embarrassing episode that involved a game of golf with the Prime Minister of Malaysia. Watch the video at “theworld.org”.

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