Syria: Alternate Endings

As atrocities continue, the international community is debating military intervention in Syria again.

Others are pushing for a “Yemen Option,” giving Syria’s president safe haven abroad in exchange for relinquishing power, as happened to Yemen’s dictator earlier this year.

Anchor Marco Werman explores the options with Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group, which is a non-profit committed to resolving conflict.

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Marco Werman: We turn now to Robert Malley. He’s Mideast program director for the International Crisis Group, a non-profit commited to preventing and resolving conflict.

Robert Malley: I would say it’s remarkable, the degree to which Syrian society, up to this point, has resisted the kind of sectarian civil war that seems to be just around the corner. And the question is whether what happened in Houla led the massacres there, could trigger the kind, could be a tipping point towards a more generalized civil war which, again, we haven’t really seen. We haven’t seen massacres of Alawite villagers for example. But that’s the risk, and the more this lasts, the more likely it will be, and the harder it will be to reach a diplomatic solution, and the more likely that you’re going to see the kinds of developments that people are fearing. Regional spillover, but also growing weight of the more Islamist, jihadist strain of the armed opposition. So a lot of the things that people fear, are more likely to happen, the longer it lasts.

Werman: What do you think, Robert, would military intervention help?

Malley: First question is not only, will it help end this war, but also whether there’s the willingness on the part of the international community to do so. And that really depends on their own assessment of the risks involved and of what it would actually produce. Obviously a number of countries would be interested in getting rid of the current regime, but they also are somehwhat petrified at the notion of jumping into another Middle East conflict, of perhaps exacerbating the situation in Syria, of provoking greater outside interference and greater spillover effects from Syria. So I think anyone who’s looking at Syria, is looking at all these options, including the military option, but at this point, I have not seen, and I don’t think that leaders in Washington, or elsewhere, have seen a plan that reassures them in terms of answers to those questions. How do you get in? What are the costs and the consequences in terms of perhaps escalating the conflicts in Syria. What are the costs for the region? And then perhaps most important of all, how do you get out? It doesn’t mean that it won’t happen, but it means that before those questions get credible answers, it’s hard to imagine, at least speaking about the US administration, that they would plunge in.

Werman: Others have talked about a Yemen option. Explain that. What is it?

Malley: The Yemen option doesn’t really say much. What it stands for, is basically three pillars, what happened in the case of Yemen and the transition there. Pillar number 1 is that it’s a coalition of countries, including countries that are historical allies of the regime in question. In the case of Yemen, it was Saudi Arabia which was allied with President Saleh, that was joining in this international effort. In this case when people speak of a Yemeni option, they have in mind bringing Russia on board as an ally of the Syrian regime. That would be part of this transitional process. That’s element number 1. Element number 2 is that, at the end of the process, the president — President Saleh in one case — President Assad in this case, if it were to happen, would have to step down. Element number 3 is that the basic infrastructure, the structures of the regime, some of the pillars of the regime, stay in place. It’s a very gradual, managed transition. And so, different countries, see different pieces of the Yemeni model that they like. The Russians are attracted to the notion of a managed transition, of one that retains basic elements of the regime, as is the case today in Yemen. The basic structures of the regime have not changed. Americans and some others, when they think of the Yemeni option, what they like about it is that, for them the punchline is that Assad has to go, and in their view he would go sooner rather than later.

Werman: I’m curious to know how much hostility you think the West is breeding in Syria by appearing to do nothing while children in Syria are being stabbed and shot at point blank range.

Malley: It’s hard to measure. I mean, there always are conspiracy theories on all sides, and from what we’re hearing from some of the people who report for us, who work for us on the ground, there is this feeling that is growing, however illegitimate and unjustified it is, that many in the West in fact want President Assad to stay in power. They don’t mind that he’s weakened, because it serves Israel’s agenda. But they basically don’t want to do anything to overthrow him, because, better have a weak Assad, than uncertainty, and perhaps an entity that would arise rebuild Syria. So that’s there, it’s present. It’s probably going to be intensified if nothing changes. But it’s also inevitable, because conspiracy theories are rife in the region, to a large extent because the people of the region have been victims of Western conspiracies for so long, so it’s not hard for them to imagine that they’re victims again.

Werman: Robert Malley, Middle East program director with the International Crisis Group in Washington. Thank you very much.

Malley: Thank you.

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Syrians appeal for help (Photo: Syrian Local Coordinating Committees)