Where Does Israel’s New Coalition Go From Here?

It started with a cosmogonic flip-flip. The head of the opposition Kadima party, Shaul Mofaz had called Benjamin Netanyahu a “liar” and said he would never join the prime minister’s coalition. “Not today, not tomorrow,” Mofaz declared on March 3rd. Then, in a move that surprised everyone, the two men held a joint news conference yesterday and repeatedly said they were joining forces for the good of the country.

Many Israelis smelled something funny. I went to Jerusalem’s biggest shopping mall yesterday morning as shops were starting to open up. The news broke too late for the morning papers. But most people I approached had heard about the surprise agreement between Netanyahu and Mofaz. “It’s horrible and it’s disgusting,” Yaakov Levi told me. “How are we supposed to believe in our government,” the retiree asked? “They’re just playing [political] games.”

That skepticism is widespread in Israel. A poll by Ha’aretz finds that only a quarter of respondents believe the Likud-Kadima alliance is about serving the national interest. Most say the deal was about political and personal considerations. Another man I talked with in the mall yesterday, a computer programmer named Yair told me, “I would like to see statesmen and not politicians in the government.”

“A statesman is someone who has clear ideas and walks a path to bring the country to a certain end,” Yair said. “And a politician is someone who does everything he can to keep his position.”

But what about the four issues that Netanyahu and Mofaz laid out on Tuesday as their top priorities?

It is difficult to find anyone who thinks Israel’s new government is likely to bring about a major breakthrough with the Palestinians in the next year and a half. Some experts point out that Kadima’s position vis-a-vis the Palestinians is far more moderate than some of Netanyahu’s long-time coalition partners, not to mention some in his own Likud party. That gives the prime minister more political cover to make a move on this issue, if he decides to do so.

When I asked one couple in the mall yesterday if they thought Netanyahu might succeed in reviving the peace process, they looked at me like I just stepped off the plane from America. “Netanyahu and Mofaz say it’s one of their top priorities,” I pointed out. “Do you believe them,” Shmuel asked? “I don’t.”

Neither does David Horovitz of The Times of Israel, who writes:

“It is hard to believe the alliance will have any great effect on peacemaking with the Palestinians, notwithstanding Tuesday’s appeals by both men to the Palestinian Authority to return to the negotiating table. If the prime minister truly, passionately wanted to break the deadlock with PA President Mahmoud Abbas, he could have done so without Mofaz.”

One early test this new coalition will face has to do with Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Israel’s High Court of Justice has ruled that a number of buildings in so-called illegal settlement outposts are standing on private Palestinian lands and they must be demolished soon.

I spoke with Yossi Alpher on the phone yesterday and he is willing to venture a guess on how this will play out. Alpher is a blogger, a former Israeli intelligence official, former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University.

“My sense is that an unannounced part of this deal is going to be Mofaz acquiescing in Knesset legislation to bypass the High Court ruling and leave a lot of these dwellings in place, even though they’re built on private Palestinian land,” Alpher said. “That hardly corresponds with some genuine new departure in the peace process.”

On the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, Alpher thinks Netanyahu’s decision to sign up with Mofaz could be an indication that the Israeli prime minister is not on a path toward launching a unilateral attack against Iran anytime soon.

As he’s quoted in my radio story, Alpher told me that, “Mofaz strengthens the camp [in the Israeli government] of those who oppose a strong initiative [toward striking Iran].”

Mofaz has said he is not in favor of an Israeli attack on Iran. But remember, he also said he would never join a coalition with Netanyahu.

And as many analysts point out, Netanyahu bought Mofaz cheap by saving him from a trip to the political gallows. Mofaz’s Kadima party was projected to do poorly if early elections went ahead.

Now, it’s tough to see how Mofaz could put the breaks on a plan to bomb Iran if that is what Netanyahu and his hawkish defense minister, Ehud Barak, decide is the best of action.

As David Horovitz puts it:

“Mofaz’s presence at the cabinet table will have no impact on policy regarding Iran. If Netanyahu believes the Jewish State faces imminent annihilation, he will act. Until then, he won’t. Period.”

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