Srdja Popovic Defends Non-Violence When Toppling Dictators

It’s been nearly a year and a half of violence in Syria.

The death toll is estimated at more than 15,000.

It’s hard to imagine how the conflict there could ever end peacefully.

Srdja Popovic has been closely following events in Syria, as well as the whole narrative of the Arab Spring.

Read the Transcript
The text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI’s THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI’s THE WORLD is the program audio.

Marco Werman: It’s been nearly a year and a half of violence in Syria, the death toll is estimated at more than 15,000. It’s hard to imagine how the conflict there could ever end peacefully. Sergio Popovich has been closely following events in Syria, as well as the whole narrative of the Arab Spring. You could also say the Arab Spring has been following him. Popovich was an activist in the movement that lead to the ouster of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. In recent years, he’s been advising non violent democracy activists the world over. He last spoke with us about developments in the Middle East last year, in the early throes of the Arab Spring, Sergio Popovich, nice to have you back, thanks for joining us.

Sergio Popovich: Nice to be on your show.

Werman: There’s a lot to catch up on, because when we last spoke with you, Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak had been ousted following a brief non violent uprising, President Ben Ali had been rejected in Tunisia, and violence was raging in Libya with Muammar Gaddafi still in power, but the ousters did begin to follow this pattern. Not so in Syria; what are democracy activists supposed to do now in Syria, with all reasonable options seemingly tapped out?

Popovich: Well, I mean there is this great misconception that there is a certain level of violence where actually you cannot confront it with a non violent struggle. They should think about this as a boxing match with Tyson: the last place you want to confront Mike Tyson is a boxing ring. This is exactly what the Syrian army is trying, with their pathetic attempt to challenge one of the most serious armies in the Middle East. I’m sure the progress for Syrian uprising lies in understanding that you really need to escalate your tactics, from protesting and persuasion, into the non cooperation, and I think this is where the biggest vulnerability of Assad’s regime lies.

Werman: So, clarify for us, are you suggesting, I mean, you, you’re a non violence activist, are you suggesting fighting back?

Popovich: I am absolutely against any violent action, because a few reasons. First of all, violence justifies violence. Second, it increases the level of risk of the participation, and numbers are what really counts in a non violence struggle. Violence is absolutely no means of changing the regime, history actually tells us that there is this tremendous record called “Why Civil Resistance Works”, it’s a great study by two young American academics. It examines 323 cases of violent and non violent campaigns, results are impressive. In the case of violent uprising, you have about 26% of chances for success. In the case of non violent uprising, your chances are 53%.

Werman: Should we as Americans never have had our Revolution?

Popovich: I think you as Americans don’t examine enough on the non violent aspects of your Revolution, I mean, you’re sitting in Boston, and the Boston Tea Party was the iconic image there, there are so many strikes, and boycotts, and non cooperation with British Government, but you know there are so many movies obviously made about the people running around and shooting each other, which was important, but not so important part of the Revolution, so yes, you learn from your Revolution.

Werman: But the narrative of the struggle, as I understand it in Syria, is that pro democracy activists began their demonstrations, and then Assad fought back, uh, relentlessly, and it’s been a mess ever since. How do you get those pro democracy activists back in the street, at this point?

Popovich: You don’t want them back in the street, at this point.

Werman: What do you want them to do?

Popovich: Being in the street is high risk tactic of concentration, you come there, you’re exposed, instead of that, I mean, what if people, like in Chile under Che, which was not a very oppressive regime, people were going on the–

Werman: Chile, yea–

Popovich: yes–people were going on the street, they were going on strikes, and then the military would come and just shoot them, so what if people decide, like in Chile, to walk half speed, and drive half speed? Immediately this bubble of fear fell down, because people recognized that they are many, and they are doing a thing that is very difficult to sanction. In the case of Syria, I think we have a deeper problem, and it’s unity. If opposition in Syria cannot find the common vision of tomorrow, which will include Sunnis, Shi’as, Alawis, and Christians, it will never win.

Werman: I can’t let you go, Sergio, without asking you, given the death toll in Syria, and its uh, it continues to increase, do you oppose foreign intervention?

Popovich: I always oppose foreign military intervention. I have at least two good reasons for this. The first one is scientific, the same study, “Why Civil Resistance Works”, examines different cases of military and non violent uprising. In the case that the change was brought by the military uprising or foreign military intervention, if you make an intersection through the society 5 years after the change, you have about 4% of chances to end up in democracy and stability. The reason for this is that people are not participating in this, but the foreign airplanes are bringing the change. And then when you look at the non violent uprising, there is about 46% chances that it, people like Egyptians will end in uh, democracy and stability. Another one is deeply personal. I’m a Serb, as you know, your Country bombed my Country,–

Werman: Hmm–

Popovich: –my mother was almost killed. She was a TV journalist, in the bombing of Serbian National TV, which was for some reason proclaimed as a legitimate military goal, and I know that bombing didn’t bring down Milosevic, it was the popular non violent movement which brought down Milosevic, bombing only actually strengthened Milosevic, because when people are in trouble, and oppressed from the outside, everybody rallies around the leadership. So it doesn’t bring Democracy, and it doesn’t bring the bad man down, in most of the cases. But, it kills people.

Werman: Well, one thing that seems to be clear in Syria is that the options are not clear.

Popovich: I can’t agree more. But there are definitely models we can look at and this is really an inspired struggle. I mean, when you look at the things you can really help these people with, there are not only two meals in this refrigerator. I mean, International community always reaches for sanctions, and then you know second is for military intervention. There are so many different things where you can really successfully support a non violent movement: with knowledge, with materials, with, uh, safe online platform, with all of the different things. So I would really love for the International community to please get half as creative as these young people in Syria.

Werman: Sergio Popovich, the Executive Director of the Center for Applied Non-Violent Action Canvass, he joined us from Washington. Sergio, thank you very much indeed.

Popovich: You’re more than welcome.

Copyright ©2009 PRI’s THE WORLD. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to PRI’s THE WORLD. This transcript may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior written permission. For further information, please email The World’s Permissions Coordinator at theworld@pri.org.

Read tweets about the Arab Spring