Defections Rattle Syrian Regime

Syria’s Prime Minister Riyad Hijab has confirmed his defection from the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Rime Allaf, a Middle East associate with the London-based think tank Chatham House, says the defection is not a major blow to the regime’s survival, but is nonetheless another embarrassment for Syria’s government.

“Today is really a big blow in the sense that it will not make the regime crumble, but it is absolutely humiliating for the regime to have its own prime minister defecting,” Rime says, adding, “Bashar Assad and his allies cannot know anymore on whom they can count.”

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Lisa Mullins: The White House said today that Syria’s government is ‘crumbling from within’. That’s after the latest defection from Bashar al-Assad ‘s government. His Prime Minister Riyad al-Hijab has jumped-ship; he fled to Jordan. Hijab is the highest level Syrian to switch sides. Others include a general and two top diplomats. Rime Allaf is an associate fellow with a London-based think tank Chatham House-she’s Syrian herself. She says that the latest defection is damaging.

Rime Allaf: Today is really a big blow, in the sense that, it will not make the regime crumble, but it is absolutely humiliating for the regime to have its own Prime Minister defecting.

Mullins: Although the Prime Minister does not wield nearly as much power as the president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, so aside from-I mean, the humiliation factor I guess would be, perhaps mitigated by the fact that this man has only been Prime Minister for a couple of months. Apparently he was planning his defection the entire time. But what real kind of wounds could this create in the regime?

Allaf: The regime does not like to hear such news because, it has been trying to convince the people who still support it, that this is all a conspiracy; that this is all a war against Syria led by the United States and its allies, led by Saudi Arabian Quatar. Defections like these from the heart of the government-precisely because he was so new-served to show that they are not really in control. So it is very difficult for the Syrian regime to keep claiming to its supporters that the bad guys from outside are trying to target us because of our positions. And there are still significant amounts of people in Syria, who are buying the regime line-only watch Syrian television or Ad Unit television-which is ally to the regime-and who desperately need to believe that this is all some big conspiracy. When members of the government are beginning to defect and are beginning to speak out-whatever the reason they’re doing that-be that because they think the ship is sinking and they need to jump out; or perhaps they really believe that they should not be in such a government. The point is that, when that happens, the whole line about the conspiracy is getting more and more difficult to keep on defending to Syrian population, which is still holding on to this regime.

Mullins: What does it matter?-if the Syrian population holds onto this regime? I mean there’s plenty of proof of what the regime has done. One would think that a PR blow might not make much of a difference. But are you saying that for Bashar al-Assad, the hopes and support of those with inside Syria is pretty much all he has to prop him up now?

Allaf: The regime has a lot to prop it up. Mainly the army and the intelligence. But also, it does very much matter that a portion of the Syrian population still supports it. This is why for the past year and a half we’ve seen repeatedly-especially at the beginning-a lot of organized rallies and support of the regime; a lot of public appearances by different members, and by Assad himself. And a very strong drive in the media. Both the official media such as SANA and Syrian television. And the unofficial media such as Addounia. And their allies: Iranian television, Russian television, et cetera. They have been on a very determined drive to convince many people in Syria that this is all a conspiracy.

Mullins: Does anyone in the Syrian government hold as much power-overtly or covertly-as the President?-does Bashar al-Assad?

Allaf: Nobody in the entire Syrian regime-let alone the government-has any real power outside the higher echelon of the regime. Which means Bashar Assad oars the heads of the intelligence, and that of the army who are very close and loyal allies so far. In times of crisis like this one-for the regime-not a single official really matters at all. If you notice, even officials like the Foreign Minister goes for months-or weeks-at a time without being seen, and suddenly, he is sent to Iran to make a press conference. So, when they need them, they show them in front of the media. But the real decisions and the real power-without any doubt-has always been with the regime, and not with the government.

Mullins: So as more and more members of the regime fall away, does Bashar al-Assad of Syria look more and more like Muammar Gaddafi in Libya during his last days?

Allaf: The Syrian regime does not look at all like the Libyan regime. On the contrary, on the Libyan regime side, we had very steady defections throughout the crisis. In Syria, this has not been-very few defections; for a number of reasons, not least of which been the fact that when you defect from the Syrian regime and the government, you have to make sure that your entire family is accounted for, because the repercussions are immense. This is not so much about the regime losing power. It is not so much about a blow to its reputation. It is about, not being able to convince the rest of the people that it is holding together. And more importantly, it is about the fact that Bashar Assad and his allies cannot know any more on whom they can count.

Mullins: That’s Rime Allaf, who’s an associate fellow with the London-based think-tank Chatham House. We spoke with her from Vienna. Reim Allaf, thank you.

Allaf: Thank you for having me.

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