Ethiopia’s Future Without Zenawi is Uncertain

Ethiopia is mourning the death of prime minister Meles Zenawi.

He ruled the west African nation for two decades.

His administration was one of America’s staunchest allies in the continent.

But now there are concerns that his passing could leave a power vacuum.

Marco Werman speaks with E.J. Hogendoorn, of the non-profit International Crisis Group.

They have just issued a report that warns of serious consequences.

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Marco Werman: One of America’s staunchest allies in South Africa is in the middle of a tricky transition. Ethiopia is facing an uncertain future without its longtime leader, Meles Zenawi. He died a week ago in Belgium. His funeral is scheduled for next Sunday. Meles Zenawi ruled Ethiopia since the early 1990s when he took power after a civil war. Now there are concerns that his passing could lead to instability in this key US ally. The nonprofit International Crisis Group has warned of serious consequences in a new report. E.J. Hogendoorn, coauthored the report. He says the potential for instability stems from the way Meles Zenawi ran Ethiopia over the past two decades.

E.J. Hogendoorn: While he was in charge he concentrated power very much within himself and within is party, the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front, and as he leaves there is no clear succession strategy and so there is a big power vacuum and no one really knows who’s going to be in charge.

Werman: Now, apparently the deputy prime minister, I’m not even sure how to pronounce his name, Hailemariam Desalegn, is that it?

Hogendoorn: Right.

Werman: He’ll be rising up to the post of prime minister. What do we know about him?

Hogendoorn: He has been a loyal member of the umbrella Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Front, but we don’t know whether or not he will have sufficient political power to rule.

Werman: Now the late Meles Zenawi was once regarded as a hero in Ethiopia for leading the charge against dictator Mengistu. The big turning point for Meles seemed to happen just because I got there on a reporting trip in 2005, elections in which the opposition seemed to gather more power than ever and then charged Meles and his party with cheating them out of a national victory. Remind us what happened next.

Hogendoorn: Well, as you rightly eluded, there was kind of a democratic revolt against Meles’ rule. Meles then essentially rigged the subsequent elections and he won all the parliamentary seats except for two.

Werman: And that tension has kind of remained the status quo ever since in Ethiopia up until Meles’ death. He arrested a lot of dissidents. There were demonstrations. How many of those political opponents are still in prison?

Hogendoorn: It’s unclear. It certainly is a lot. And most of the other political leaders have been essentially hounded into exile. Essentially, Meles has been relying more and more on repression and our real concern is that after Meles if the same people stay in charge they’ll have to rely even more on repression. And of course, if they keep the lid on tighter, when it comes off it will come off even more forcefully.

Werman: But it sounds like what you’re saying is that the new prime minister will probably try and keep a lid on dissent.

Hogendoorn: Well, just to be precise, he is the acting head of state. It is not clear whether or not he will actually be named the permanent prime minister. All the indications are that because there is no clear succession mechanism there’s a leadership struggle and what remains to be seen is who is going to become the prime minister and perhaps as importantly, who is going to be the chair of the ruling party and the front that are actually the government.

Werman: E.J. Hogendoorn of the International Crisis Group in Washington, thank you very much.

Hogendoorn: My pleasure.

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