Yemen: Taking Charge of the Generals

The president of Yemen has begun restructuring the Yemeni army.

Princeton scholar Gregory Johnsen tells Marco Werman that this power play has to be handled with care.

Last Monday president Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi transferred the command of several Republican Guards’ units to his newly created Presidential Protection Force. That force will also include a brigade from the army’s First Armored Division led by General Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, who last year supported opposition protests against the Salih regime. Other units from the Republican Guards, commanded by former President Ali Abdullah Salih’s son Ahmad, will move to other regional commands.

“I think this is a significant story and one that has been developing for some time,” says Johnsen. “This is Hadi’s latest step in his attempt to simultaneously erode the ground from beneath the feet of Ahmad Ali Salih and Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, while the whole time not bringing Yemen’s military crashing down around his ears.”

But Johnsen is wary of the new Presidential Protection Force. “One of the things that was quite disturbing about president Salih’s rule is that he did exactly this sort of thing,” Johnsen tells The World. “In 1980, two years after he came to power, (Salih) created the Central Security Force as, basically, an anti-coup protection agency. What the United States, and the international community, felt they were getting in president Hadi, is someone completely different from Salih. And so, for the new president to essentially take a page out of president Salih’s playbook, and create his own force that’s just loyal to him, is, I think, a very worrying development for people like myself.”

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Marco Werman: Yemen’s new President has begun to take charge of his nation’s military. Last Monday, President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi announced a reconstruction of the Yemeni army. Princeton scholar Gregory Johnsen follows Yemen closely. Gregory, much of Yemen’s army was loyal to the former President and dictator, Ali Abdullah Salih. How should we be interpreting this reorganization? Is it a big deal in your opinion?

Gregory Johnsen: Yeah, it’s absolutely a big deal. I mean basically what we have in Yemen is that President Hadi is attempting to stop what’s been for the last thirty years under President Salih, really a runaway truck. So what he’s trying to do is stop this runaway truck and get it moved back in the other direction because in Yemen we have a situation in the military where soldiers are not necessarily loyal to the commander-in-chief, to President Hadi, rather they’re loyal to their own individual commander, which in this case means the former President’s eldest son, Ahmed Ali Abdullah Salih and another general, Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar. So you have this very tense situation in Yemen where you have these powerful generals who are opposed to each other and the President is essentially attempting to erode the ground out from under the feet of these two generals while not having the entire Yemeni military come crashing down around his ears

Werman: Right. So the runaway truck in Yemen is the military and adding to the metaphor is this: An anonymous Yemeni official said today that the commander of the Republican Guard there is preparing a military coup. Is that a surprise?

Johnsen: This is something that’s been rumored about for quite some time. You’re going to hear rumors. And it’s also important know that President Hadi has now been in office almost six months, and just as important as the things that he has done, he has had this restructuring of the military, that continues to be in development, he has created a new force that he calls the Presidential Protection Force which I’m a bit concerned about, but he also has failed to nominate a Vice President in Yemen. And so if something were to happen to President Hadi, if there was a coup, if there was something, no one knows what would come next.

Werman: And why was this Presidential Protection Force such a concern in your view?

Johnsen: For myself, one of the things that was quite disturbing about President Salih’s rule is that he did exactly this sort of thing. So in 1980, two years after he came to power, he created the Central Security Forces basically an anti-coup protection agency. What the United States and the international community felt they were getting in President Hadi, is someone completely different from Salih. And so, for the new president to essentially take a page out of President Salih’s playbook and create his own force that’s just loyal to him, is, I think, a very worrying development for people like myself.

Werman: Overall, Gregory Johnsen, are you encouraged by the first six months of President Hadi?

Johnsen: Yeah, President Hadi has done, I think, a much better job than many people, including myself, felt he was capable of and I think the reason that President Hadi has been able to this is that he’s gotten very strong support from the United States and from the international community in particular. Unfortunately, because of how the transition came about in Yemen, none of the challenges that 2011 and all the popular protests brought to the forefront, none of those were really dealt with, so you didn’t get rid of President Salih’s relatives withing the military, you didn’t figure out how to handle this other general, Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, and all these individuals are still in the capital, they still hold their positions which is why President Hadi has to be so careful in the moves that he makes and essentially make them in an incremental fashion, hoping that he can sort of tip the balance of power his way toward the central government before the generals react. So it’s a very delicate situation and one I think a lot of countries are watching with a great deal of concern.

Werman: Gregory Johnsen writes the blog “Waq al-Waq” and is the author of the forthcoming book “The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia”. Gregory, thank you so much.

Johnsen: Thanks so much for having me.

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