What a Chavez Re-Election Means for the US

Hugo Chavez has not had the best of relations with the US. He has aligned himself with American adversaries including Cuba, Syria and Iran. What does Chavez’ next term mean for US-Venezuelan relations?

Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue, a US-based think tank, tells Marco Werman that political tensions will continue.

However, Shifter warns that Venezuela’s alliance with Iran will be the biggest worry for the United States. He says, “since Chavez came to power in 1999, he’s been intent on curtailing the influence of the United States, the power of the United States and he has forged alliance both within Latin America and throughout the world with countries that are not terribly friendly with the United States.”

Shifter says he doesn’t see Chavez backing away but “I also don’t know how much damage he’s really been able to do. Even if he’s been re-elected, he’s obviously ill, he faces a stronger opposition, he’s got terribly serious governance problems. And his capacity to follow through on some of these alliances and really cause a problem for the United States, I think is limited.”

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Marco Werman: A majority of Venezuelans may be happy to have Chavez stay on. The US government isn’t so thrilled though. US relations with Hugo Chavez have long been tense and they’re not likely to get any better with yesterday’s vote. Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue, a US-based think tank. Now, Michael, the US and Venezuela I think it’s fair to say haven’t been BFFs for a long time, to say the least. Not since Hugo Chavez first entered office some twelve years ago. Where does this new term in office leave US-Venezuelan relations?

Michael Shifter: I don’t think there’s a lot that’s gonna change very much. I think that political tensions are gonna continue and yet Venezuela is gonna continue to sell a lot of oil to the United States. I think that economic relationship, that trade relationship will remain in tact, but I just don’t see any reducing of tensions between the two governments. There’s no US ambassador in Caracas and there’s no Venezuelan ambassador here in Washington, and I really doubt that’s gonna change.

Werman: One of the things that Hugo Chavez has been saying a lot lately though is that he’s gonna sell less oil to the US and more of it to Asia. So how concerned is the US by this plan, especially with recent reports showing that Venezuela has surpassed Saudi Arabia in terms of the size of its proven oil reserves?

Shifter: I don’t think the US is terribly concerned because Chavez has been saying this for a long time, and the data are that while there’s been some modest increase in the sale of oil to China and other countries in Asia, it’s been very modest. The whole system is setup for selling crude oil to the United States. The refineries are in the United States. This has been developed over decades and it really doesn’t make a lot of economic sense for Chavez to ship oil and sell oil to Asia.

Werman: What kind of differences would you see coming out of a Romney White House and an Obama White House in dealing with Hugo Chavez.

Shifter: I think we probably see a little stronger rhetoric with a Romney White House. The Obama White House has been quite restrained in its statements and have really just been following developments in Venezuela. Clearly, there’s a lot of strain and friction, but there really hasn’t been a lot of rhetoric going back and forth. And I think certainly what we’ve heard in the Romney campaign is I think a little bit more noise, a little bit more critical. President Obama mentioned in an interview that Venezuela doesn’t represent a security threat to the United States. That was immediately responded to by the Romney campaign and they took a much harder line, but beyond the rhetoric I’m not sure in practice you’re gonna see a big difference between the two administration.

Werman: Now Hugo Chavez has made a point of inviting Mahmud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, to Venezuela and he may sincerely consider him a friend, but it also seems to help that Ahmadinejad is also an American antagonist and Chavez knows that as well. Do you think that kind of provocation is gonna continue and how much does the Iran connection present a legitimate problem for the US?

Shifter: Well, I think the Iran connection is the principle concern of the United States. I think its much less Venezuela’s political situation, although that’s a worry, but I think it’s really, it’s alliances and especially with a country like Iran, which does represent a security threat to the United States, I think since Chavez came to power in 1999 he’s been intent on curtailing the influence of the United States, the power of the United States and he has forged alliances both within Latin America and throughout the world with countries that are not terribly friendly with the United States. I don’t see him backing off on that, but I also don’t know how much damage he’s really able to do. Even though he’s been reelected, he’s obviously ill, he faces a stronger opposition, he’s got terribly serious governance problems and his capacity to follow through on some of these alliances and really cause a problem for the United States I think is limited, although I’m sure Washington is following very closely the developments, especially with Iran and will continue to do so no matter who is in the White House come January.

Werman: Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, thanks so much for speaking with us.

Shifter: Thank you very much.

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