The Year Ahead in Latin America

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez is struggling to recover from a fourth cancer operation and officials describe his situation as “delicate.”

Julia Sweig, of the Council on Foreign Relations, says it’s unlikely Chavez will be able to attend the swearing in for his fourth term in office slated for January 10th.

Anchor Marco Werman speaks with Sweig about that and the other main news stories from Latin America at the start of 2013.

Read the Transcript
The text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI’s THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI’s THE WORLD is the program audio.

Marco Werman: In Venezuela many New Year’s celebrations didn’t happen. Events were cancelled. Events were cancelled because of President Hugo Chavez’ uncertain health. The Venezuelan leader is in Cuba recovering from his fourth cancer operation. Officials back home describe his condition as delicate. Chavez is supposed to be sworn in for a new six year term in office on January 10, but that may not happen as planned. Julia Sweig monitors Latin America at the Council on Foreign Relations. She says the region is rife with speculation about Chavez’ health and his swearing in.

Julia Sweig: I did see one news item suggesting that perhaps some supreme court justices from Caracas would fly to Havana and swear him in at his bedside. But I think there’s a constitutional problem with that, so really it’s anybody’s guess, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to appear in person, if in fact, he is sworn in. And that opens up a whole catalog of worms in terms of succession and the constitutionality of the different options.

Werman: Swearing him on what may very well be his death bed in Havana seems pretty extreme. Is Venezuela’s opposition poised to accept this?

Sweig: No, I don’t think so. The more likely scenario than the bedside swearing is a constitutional and legal request to postpone the inauguration and call for new elections within 30 days. That’s what there seems to be a consensus around that is in fact a viable option if Jan. 10 won’t fly.

Werman: The leading US State Department official for Latin America, Roberta Jacobson, recently had a long phone conversation with the man Chavez has designated as his heir, that’s vice president Nicolas Maduro. Can we expect a thaw in relations with Washington if Maduro takes over?

Sweig: I think it’s reasonable to assume that Washington and Maduro in Caracas want that sort of thing. And Maduro’s political base is complicated; you know, he’s not Chavez, so will we see domestically, Chavismo without Chavez, but a sort of softer approach in terms of international relations? If that the case I do think there’ll be a bit of political good will for a thaw on both ends.

Werman: What is the strategy for opposition in Venezuela to come back if they want to?

Sweig: In October, the national elections that took place, obviously, Chavez won, but what happened for the first time among the opposition is they were unified around one candidate, Enrique Capriles, who had on his agenda not really an anti Chavez focus so much as he figured out that he had to focus on the issues that Venezuelans themselves care about, and that poor Venezuelans that have become Chavez’ base care about. Now he lost, but he ran a respectable campaign and just earlier this month, governors races around the country, the Chavista Party took almost every single state, but the state of Miranda, where Capriles won. Now, that gives him a psychological leg up in terms of staying on top of the effort to unify the opposition and to run again. However, if there is in fact another election soon, that is within the next several months of 2013, it’s not clear to me that the Chavez machine will again put Maduro in power, despite a stronger opposition candidate.

Werman: That is a strong machine. Let me ask you about another place in Latin America, Cuba. What do you think is in store for US relations with Cuba this year? I mean if John Kerry, as it’s expected, takes over for Hillary Clinton at the State Department. How would that shake things up for Havana and Washington?

Sweig: Well, I’d like to say it would open many doors to a thaw on that front as well, but I’m skeptical for a couple of reasons: 1) Cuba’s succession, that is the transition from Fidel to Raul and then the number of domestic reforms taking place on the island have happened very stably, very calmly. There’s been no crisis there. And that has reinforced the sort of political inertia in the United States to keep the status quo of the embargo in place. Now, Obama was reelected with almost 50% of the Cuban American vote in Florida, which presumably would give him some political running room to go forward with a significant rapprochement opening policy toward Havana, but John Kerry is going to be in charge of dealing with many crises around the world as Hillary Clinton was, having Bob Menendez, the democrat of New Jersey, now becoming the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Menendez is Cuban American, cares passionately that no change happened while the Castros are alive. So despite the opening on the ground, I’m not sure that’ll translate into political will in Washington.

Werman: Julia Sweig, at the Council on Foreign Relations. Her latest book is called Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know. Thanks a lot, Julia.

Sweig: It was great to be here, thanks so much.

Copyright ©2012 PRI’s THE WORLD. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to PRI’s THE WORLD. This transcript may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior written permission. For further information, please email The World’s Permissions Coordinator at theworld@pri.org.