Voters in Mexico have some interesting choices.

They could pick the leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who claims he was robbed of the presidency in 2006, or they could bring back the Institutional Revolutionary party (the PRI), the party which ran the country for seven decades, by electing Enrique Peña Nieto, or they could elect Mexico’s first woman president in Josefina Vázquez Mota, who has recently been chosen by her party to run for the presidency.

Anchor Marco Werman talks to reporter Franc Contreras, who is in Mexico City, about the three candidates vying for the presidential elections.

This time the opposition is trying a new strategy. It’s holding a primary.

There are a lot of opposition parties in Venezuela, at least a dozen at the national level, from all across the political spectrum. Individually, none of them can hold a candle to President Chavez and his ruling United Socialist Party, in terms of either popularity or resources. But together… they might have a chance.

The one-day primary on February 12th will select a single candidate that all parties opposing Chavez have agreed to support in the general election. The clear frontrunner is Henrique Capriles, 39-year-old governor of one of Venezuela’s biggest states. On the campaign trail, Capriles talks about tackling inflation and crime, and about getting out the vote.

“No one should fail to vote on February 12th,” said Capriles at a recent campaign stop. “It’s going to be a historic day for all Venezuelans.”

This is the first time the various opposition parties in Venezuela agree to hold a unified primary. The nationwide voting is open to all Venezuelans, regardless of party affiliation. Exactly how many show up could give an indication of how strong the anti-Chavez vote could be in October.

The opposition’s Coalition for Democratic Unity is hoping to build on its success two years ago. That’s when it made big gains against Chavez’s party in parliamentary elections.

“That vote showed that the country was fairly evenly divided between those who were supporting the governing party and those who were supporting various opposing parties in that election,” says Jennifer McCoy, director the Americas Program at the Carter Center. “So the opposition feels that this election could be quite competitive.”

Still, Chavez remains a formidable opponent. His critics accuse the Chavez administration of derailing former opposition frontrunner Leopoldo Lopez, by charging him with corruption. Lopez was banned from holding public office through at least 2014.

Also, despite problems like high inflation and a soaring crime rate, Chavez’s approval ratings are above 50 percent and trending up. The president’s ratings may have been boosted by his being back in the public eye, after his long absences last year while receiving cancer treatments in Cuba.

“He’s creating a very important magical environment,” says Luis Vicente León of the Caracas polling firm Datanalisis. “He’s like Harry Potter against Voldemort in the last chapter. He’s coming from the dead.”

But Leon, who spoke recently at an event organized by the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Latin American Program, says there’s another, more troubling scenario for Chavez. If his illness returns, Leon thinks the 57-year-old incumbent Chavez could have a hard time against a younger, more energetic challenger like the 39-year-old Capriles.

That scenario isn’t rattling Chavez, at least not in public. To prove his fitness, he recently gave a nine hour speech before Congress. And he’s been boasting that he’s certain to win re-election in October. But the Venezuelan president also predicts that when he wins, it’s certain that his detractors in Venezuela and in Washington will accuse him of fraud.

But now, as President Ma begins his second-term, some expect China to start ratcheting up pressure to build stronger political ties, and move Taiwan closer to reunification with China.

An early sign of that came in a post-election statement from Beijing. An anchor on China’s state-run television read a summary: “The Mainland is willing to join hands with the people of Taiwan from all walks of life, as they break new ground in peaceful development in cross-straits relations.”

Then came the kicker.

“This is on the basis of continuing to oppose Taiwan independence, and sticking to the 1992 consensus.”

The 1992 consensus really wasn’t a consensus. Beijing sees it as an agreement with Taiwan that there is one China, and it’s the People’s Republic of China, the PRC, with Taiwan as its province.

Taipei sees the agreement as the two sides agree to disagree on what “one China” means. For many Taiwanese, it’s a divided China, which may or may not ever reunite.

Actually, these days, a majority of Taiwanese identify themselves as Taiwanese, rather than Chinese, and don’t want to move toward reunification any time soon, and there are signs China’s getting impatient with that.

“China suffers from the rising challenger’s disease,” said Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii, who was in Taiwan for the elections. Roy was referring to how China is increasingly challenging the United States and the status quo in their balance of power – especially related to Taiwan. He said China went easy on President Ma for a couple of years – increasing trade, improving ties, making no threats, and saying it could be patient.

“In short order,” Roy said, “we started hearing about debates breaking out among Chinese elites about whether China’s policy was being too tolerant toward Taiwan, allowing Taiwan to take advantage of the concessions China was offering without offering anything in return to the Chinese, the benefits the Chinese wanted, the political benefits.”

By that he means, political benefits that would draw Taiwan inextricably into Mainland China’s orbit, as increasing economic dependence already has.

Last October, Ma raised the possibility of a peace accord with China. It created an uproar in Taiwan. So he backed off and said he’d never do such a thing without a referendum. His re-election won’t change that, he said this weekend.

“That doesn’t mean I will go even faster,” Ma said, after his victory this weekend. “I will control the pace to make sure people can support it.”

Good thing, too, because while Ma won a majority, it was a much smaller majority than last time. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party got almost 46 percent of the vote, which could be a useful thing for Ma to point out to China’s leaders, if they pressure him for more concessions. Push too much, he could say, and you risk having a DPP president next time around. The DPP tends to favor a separate Taiwan identity.

The question is whether that’s enough incentive for China to stay patient. Denny Roy of the East-West Center said there’s one thing Beijing is increasingly impatient about – US arms sales to Taiwan.

“Arms sales remain an impending train wreck,” Roy said. “The Ma Ying-jeou position, that arms sales contribute to peaceful cross-strait relations, is the exact opposite of the PRC position, that arms sales contribute to tensions across the Taiwan Strait. One must assume that there’s a limit to Chinese tolerance of that contradiction.”

Roy added that the strength of the US commitment to Taiwan seems – unofficially – to be ebbing. At the same time, China is fast building up its military capability for, among other things, taking control of a populated island like Taiwan.

But that’s not really how China’s leaders want to play it. They’re also doing outreach to ordinary Taiwanese people, offering scholarships and cultural events. They’d rather seduce than overpower — far less messy, far less costly. But the suitor seems to be getting tired of waiting, and many Taiwanese wonder whether President Ma has the strength to hold out, and the canniness to keep China playing a softer game.

Enrique Peña Nieto (Photo: Sandstein/World Economic Forum)

American presidential candidates don’t have the monopoly on public gaffes.

Just ask Enrique Peña Nieto, who is the front runner in the 2012 Mexican presidential elections to succeed Felipe Calderón. Nieto was recently asked to name three books that have influenced him and he couldn’t.

Anchor Marco Werman talks to reporter Franc Contreras who is following the story in Mexico City.

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Marco Werman: I’m Marco Werman, this is The World. Being a presidential candidate invites a lot of scrutiny and criticism. Just ask Herman Cain, or you can ask Enrique Pena Nieto. He’s a front runner in the race to become Mexico’s next president. He’s also the standard bearer for the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico for seven decades until the year 2000 and is now making a comeback. Pena Nieto’s critics say that the strikingly handsome candidate is just another pretty face who offers little substance. Whether that’s true or not, the candidate added fuel to that fire recently. He drew nationwide ridicule by failing to answer a simple question he was asked at a major book fair in Guadalajara — name three books that have influenced you. Well, reporter Frank Contreras is following the story in Mexico City. Frank, describe what must’ve been this awkward moment for us. It apparently went on for a few minutes as Pena Nieto turned to his aids for help.

Frank Contreras: He went on for about five minutes trying to explain just what these important books were. And the first thing he did was kind of stumble. You could tell he felt really uncomfortable with what appeared to be really a sort of softball question, Marco, three books that have influenced your life — what are they? And the first thing he said was the Bible. Then he mentioned another book; the translation would be something like the eagle’s throne. And he said it was written by Enrique Krauze, which turned out to be absolutely false and everybody at the book fair knew that. This is a well-known book in the Spanish language world written by Carlos Fuentes. And so this is one of those moments that these candidates just hate. And you know, they’re revealing to the public their Achilles heel and appearing to be sort of not very literate, you know? And all of this has just produced this tremendous reaction here in Mexico. All across Facebook and Twitter people are pretty much making fun of this presidential candidate now.

Werman: And what’s flabbergasting about this, Frank, is that he stumbled on a question at the largest book fair in Latin America. So how could he and his staff not be prepared for this question?

Contreras: Really that’s what everybody’s wondering. I mean that was the question they were going to ask him. It made people wonder does this man really have any kind of serious content to guide the country forward? Just after this happened one prominent historian said listen, candidates, all of you need to have some kind of at least serious knowledge of Mexico’s history to be able to guide this country forward; so if you don’t have that you should seriously question whether you’re really up for the job.

Werman: Well, that’s a historian. How have people, Mexicans, in general reacted to his blunder so far?

Contreras: Well, on Mexico’s Twitter sites here people have been making fun of him saying maybe he should’ve said I read a famous book called I Have a Dream by Martin Burger King…things like that, all kinds of jokes from all sorts of perspectives about what this many should’ve said, what he could’ve said. So it was a real tough day for the Mexican candidate, Pena Nieto.

Werman: You know this side of the border, Frank, and you’ve been to a few bookstores here. Are books by comparison more expensive in Mexico?

Contreras: Definitely, Mexican books on the average cost from $30-$40, even $50 a piece.

Werman: Wow.

Contreras: That’s pretty expensive, even on US standards, but in Mexico where the per capita income is much lower, you know, that’s more than a day’s salary, Marco, so most people can’t even afford a book and that explains why so few people are even able to pick up a book every year.

Werman: So according to some statistics, Mexicans on average read just three books a year. I’m wondering maybe this incident with Pena Nieto might actually prompt Mexicans to see more of themselves in him and vote for him. Is that possible?

Contreras: Well, I think the real reason they’re going to vote for him is not gonna be based on how many books he reads, but it’s going to be more because they’ve lost faith in the current ruling party, the National Action Party. It’s governed Mexico for 12 years and a lot of Mexicans feel that they’ve sort of lost ground in this time. There are now more than 62 million Mexicans living in poverty according to the United Nations, Marco. So many people feel that they’ve gotta go back to the devil they know, the party that once ruled Mexico for 70 consecutive years. It’s candidate is Pena Nieto.

Werman: Reporter Frank Contreras in Mexico City. Thanks a lot.

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Now, Otto Perez Molina, a man who commanded troops during that reign of terror, is poised to be country’s next president.

Anchor Lisa Mullins speaks with reporter Franc Contreras in Guatemala City about why voters would embrace someone who represents a once-feared institution.

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Lisa Mullins: I’m Lisa Mullins and this is The World.  Guatemalans cast their ballots in a presidential election over the weekend.  No candidate achieved a majority, but a runoff is going to be held in early November.  That’s not so surprising. What is surprising is that one of the leading contenders for president is a retired army general who commanded troops during Guatemala’s decades long crackdown on Marxist guerillas.  200,000 people died in that struggle and the army was responsible for a majority of those deaths. Reporter Franc Contreras is in Guatamala City now to cover the election.  Help us understand, Franc, why a former army general is favored now to become the next president of a country that turned its back on military rulers about 20 years ago.?

Franc Contreras: Well, this particular army general who’s now the frontrunner to become the next president of Guatemala, Otto Perez Molina, does have a long history fighting communist rebels back in the ’80s.  He was also the man who brought the peace process into fruition in 1996. But now the United States is very concerned about Guatemala because of the drug trafficking problems taking place.  And the tremendous amount of violence related to that issue of drug trafficking and organized crime.  So this man is promising to use what they’re calling mano dura, the hard fist crackdown against organized crime here.  And that’s why he’s showing so well in the polls.

Mullins: So the United States was concerned about the spread of communism back in the era that you’re talking about, 20 years ago, longer than 20 years ago; right now the US is concerned about the drug trafficking.  This presidential candidate is promising to crackdown on that.  Guatemalans themselves have they forgotten what happened 20 years ago?

Contreras: If you take a look at Guatemala’s population right now you’ll see that the vast majority are actually young people who were not even born back in the time when the government was fighting the rebels in the 1980s.  These are young people who are living through a time of economic crisis, of lack of social services, educational systems that are not great, high rates of malnutrition, and so these young people are looking for somebody who can bring the country back to a state of peace, a sense of security.  And so they really think that this former army general is just the man to do that.

Mullins: All right, so there are about 400 Guatemalan communities now that have sent formal requests to the government there to send in soldiers to protect citizens; quite a change from 20 years ago.  Is anybody expressing concerns about having a stepped up military presence now?

Contreras: Definitely, there are human rights activists, even the United Nations has suggested that using the military such as Mexico has been using the military to fight organized crime, that could lead to widespread rights violations.  When you use the military as a police force as Mexico has done, neighboring Mexico, it has created a series of problems. And even the United States government has been very concerned about this Lisa.  There have been high-ranking hearings inside the US congress about whether or not it’s still wise to use military forces in Latin America this way. But in these remote villages in Guatemala, in places where before they hated the military, now they’re thinking that it’s going to be the military that brings them security because so far the government has appeared unable to do that.

Mullins: Well, as you said, in Mexico where the military has been used as a police force, the cartels are still acting with impunity there.  So is that a model or not?

Contreras: That’s the big question really in this entire region because you know, you look at Mexico, Guatemalans are looking at Mexico because they know a number of those Mexican drug trafficking organizations are now operating here in Guatemala.  The Zetas for example, who are a former group of elite forces in Mexico that broke away from the government and became drug traffickers, those people are now operating in Guatemala. So, they’re looking at Mexico’s model and wondering is that really the way forward, but right now things are so grave in terms of security that people are willing to take the risk.  For example, a young woman just told me that she was engaged to be married.  A police officer pulled her over and she was so afraid the police officer was corrupt, that we was going to rob her, that she took off her wedding engagement ring and instead of handing it to the office, she decided to swallow it. These are the kinds of things people are living through on a day-to-day basis.  Armed robberies, extortions, kidnappings, especially here in the Guatemalan capital where I am.

Mullins: So what about Otto Perez Molina who’s running for president, what would he do about that, about organized crime?

Contreras: One of his main goals he says is to create a new intelligence force that will be using the highest level of science to track down criminals and then bring them to justice.  That’s something that simply does not exist in Guatemala or in the rest of Latin America for that matter.

Mullins: All right, reporter Franc Contreras in Guatemala City, Guatemala.  Thank you, Franc.

Contreras: Thank you very much.

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Lisa Mullins: Now to a country with plenty of US troops on the ground, Afghanistan.  This week, Afghan President Karzai announced that he will abide by his country’s constitution and not seek a third term in 2014.  The political transition in Afghanistan coincides with NATO plans to hand over security duties to the Afghan government.  Jockeying for position ahead of that key date is just starting in Afghanistan. One politician who wants to play a role is Sarwar Ahmedzai.  Ahmedzai was a candidate for president in Afghanistan’s disputed 2009 election, while recently he’s been living in San Francisco.  He told us today that he’s heading back to Afghanistan in the next few weeks to help launch a new political party there.  He would not say however, whether he wants his name on that group’s ticket in 2014.

Sarwar Ahmedzai: I think there are other capable personalities also in the group, but we will see.  I think in the coming three years we will find out who will probably be the most acceptable to the Afghan people and they will chose that person.

Mullins: So what does your party stand for?  And we don’t know if you’re gonna run for president or not as you said, it has not been decided, but what would be the thrust of any campaign?

Ahmedzai: Well, Lisa, as you know, Afghan of course, security is the number one concern in that area.  And of course, a strong central, capable, honest government is the first condition for bringing security and peace to the country.  And also, rule of law, there are still so many warlords, the drug mafia and also corruption, Afghanistan is second in the world on the list of the top most corrupt countries after Somalia. And also economic development, if you see 85% of the people fighting the Taliban, there was a survey, they are only fighting for $200-300/month because there are no jobs.  So the economic development, corruption, rule of law, security and of course, women’s rights and human rights are the platform he will be running on.

Mullins: That’s a hefty platform.  I would imagine that’s a number of pages in your campaign manifesto, the idea that you want to take on the drug mafia, institute a rule of law, take on corruption, get rid of cronyism and find jobs for people, all seem like laudatory goals.  How would you possibly do that?  I mean if you look at just a couple of those things, corruption as rampant as it is is serving a lot of people well, including in the government; the drug mafia, well, we still have a situation don’t we in Afghanistan where there are a lot of people who can only make their living if they’re growing crops that are eventually used for opium?  How could you make a dent in either of those things?

Ahmedzai: There is no doubt it may not be easy in a short period of time, but I think Afghanistan is lucky and was lucky to have the support of the strongest nation in the world.  Billions of dollars were poured in in Afghanistan.  There are so many institutions being built or are still there by the World Bank and IMF to help the Arab-run government to tackle the corruptions in Afghanistan, and I think pretty soon you will see all those people who have committed crimes, who have violated human rights, probably they will be brought to justice as they did in the Middle East and other parts of the world.

Mullins: What do you see as the role of America in the future of Afghanistan?

Ahmedzai: Well, Lisa, there’s no doubt the US is also suffering in its home from economic hardships.  Afghanistan, two thirds of their budget comes from the international donors and countries like the US.

Mullins: Which means you basically can’t do without it.

Ahmedzai: Well, I don’t think it would be possible in a short period of time as we stand on our own feet; it will take time.  And I think they also say we have billions and trillions of dollars for natural resources, but I think that’s far from now, probably 20-30 years.  But I think the US role I see in Afghanistan in long term, I don’t think the US troops will leave after 2014, I think there will still be 20,000-25,000 troops because strategically Afghanistan is so important to the US majority of the nuclear armed countries are in that region — Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran is building it also, and also India.  So I think strategically it’s very important for the US.  I don’t think I will see the US as leaving, and I don’t think so for years, I will suggest the US to leave completely from Afghanistan by 2014.

Mullins: That’s former Afghan presidential candidate, Sarwar Ahmedzai.  He was talking about the future of Afghanistan and the role of a new Afghan political party that he’s planning to launch early next month.

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Lisa Mullins: I’m Lisa Mullins and this is The World.  Picture this: superheroes and sexy young women baring all or at least baring some.  Sound like this year’s summer blockbuster?  Well, it’s actually the current state of Russia’s 2012 presidential campaign. Julia Iofee is Foreign Policy Magazine’s Moscow correspondent.  Can you help us out here, please, Julia, who’s the superhero in this campaign?

Julia Iofee: Looks like it’s Vladimir Putin.

Mullins: Vladimir Putin, and he’s portrayed as a superhero for what reason?

Iofee: He’s portrayed in some posters that went up around Moscow a couple months ago as a James Bond-like character with the tag line [speaking Russian], which means ‘He’ll Cover You’ as in he’ll be your political cover.

Mullins: He’s got your back.

Iofee: Yeah.

Mullins: And Vladimir Putin is the current Prime Minister, former President.  Is there any real indication that he’s gonna be running again for President?

Iofee: Well, it seems like he has a nice faux grassroots campaign on the way.  Just last week we saw the emergence of a video campaign calling on young girls to tear it up for Putin.

Mullins: To tear it up for Putin, meaning?

Iofee: It’s a Russian slang term that means to be protective of someone, but they took the term literally and tore up their shirts.

Mullins: When they were looking at what?  I mean they were looking at Putin himself on the campaign trail, or the posters or what were they doing?

Iofee: He’s portrayed, they portray him as sort of a sex symbol and an adequate leader for the country.  And they feel that the best way to support him is to tear their shirts off for him.

Mullins: Is this part of the Vladimir Putin campaign machine?

Iofee: We don’t know for sure, but it very much seems like it.  What’s funny is that just after this campaign launched there was a bikini car wash to support Putin in Moscow.

Mullins: Are these things unusual?  I mean I know the weather is warm there, but does this kind of thing usually happen in presidential campaigns?

Iofee: Well, define presidential campaign.  All of these terms that we’re used to hearing — presidential campaign, election, primaries — they all exist in Russia, but they mean completely different things.  Russians have been hearing for a couple of years now that Putin and Medvedev come together and they’ll just decide who runs, and whoever runs will be the president.

Mullins: So, for Medvedev, the president now, is there any indication that actually he might decide to run again against Putin and somebody might adopt a similar campaign strategy in terms of showing skin?

Iofee: Well, he’s never been seen or portrayed himself as a sex symbol.  He’s seen as a kind of wimpy nerd which doesn’t go over well with the Russian public; which is why some kind of joking posters have gone up around Moscow showing him as Captain America, but the posters say Captain Russia, the First Ruler, and he’s holding of course, his famous iPad for which he’s become the butt of a lot of jokes by people who say he spends more of his time tweeting and playing Angry Birds than actually ruling the country, which falls to Vladimir Putin, sex symbol.

Mullins: Julia Iofee, thank you very much.

Iofee: Thank you.

Mullins: Julia Iofee, Foreign Policy Magazine’s Moscow correspondent.

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The central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan is still recovering from a turbulent 2010. A bloody revolt ousted its president in April of that year. The following June ethnic violence in the south left more than 400 people dead.

One year later, Kyrgyzstan is moving forward from those terrible times. The country has scheduled a presidential election in October. But Kyrgyzstan’s violent past remains all too present today.

Odina has vivid memories of last year’s violence in southern Kyrgyzstan. Her teenage son was shot several times. He was hospitalized for days before Odina found him.

“His condition was very bad,” Odina said. “At first, I didn’t recognize him.”

Odina is an ethnic Uzbek from a majority Uzbek neighborhood in Osh. Most ethnic Uzbeks here live in temporary structures. Kyrgyz mobs destroyed their old homes during the ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan last year. Odina lives in limbo and she seems to have given up hope.

“I don’t have the will to live,” she said. “After something like this, you lose interest in everything.”

Across town, in an ethnic Kyrgyz neighbourhood, a Kyrgyz grandmother named Sharipa Abdekerimova is also living in a temporary shelter. Abdekerimova lost her home last year too — to an Uzbek mob.

“I want peace,” Abdekerimova said, “and I hope nothing like that happens again.”

Different narratives have emerged to explain how what people here call the “June events” began. An independent international commission found that both sides committed acts of violence. But most of the victims were Uzbek. The commission also uncovered evidence that Kyrgyz law enforcement, at times, participated in the attacks. The release of the commission’s final report prompted the parliament to ban the report’s lead author, a Finnish politician, from entering Kyrgyzstan. That decision – and others – has led to cynicism about the government’s handling of the aftermath of last year’s ethnic violence.

Ole Solvang, a researcher with Human Rights Watch, said Kyrgyz authorities have not done their job.

“There has been a failure to provide both, accountability for perpetrators, but also justice for the victims, and that failure is part of what prolongs the tensions between the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks,” Solvang said.

Rebuilding has begun here in Osh, but the charred remains of many homes and shops still mar the city. A Kyrgyz woman named Taalaibubu lost her stand at the bazaar when a mob overran it.

“They broke into my stall and they burned it down,” she said.

Taalaibubu recently met a group of women, Kyrgyz and Uzbek, in similar situations. They have formed a group that provides legal help to female entrepreneurs. Such partnerships offer some hope for the future. But old attitudes remain.
Many Kyrgyz fear that ethnic Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan want to secede, and Uzbeks still feel marginalized by the ethnic Kyrgyz-dominated government. Eric McGlinchey of George Mason University said reconciliation can come only when that changes.

“There has to be some kind of greater incorporation of the Uzbek population into the political structures, in the military and police structures of Southern Kyrgyzstan, if Kyrgyzstan is going to get beyond this underlying ethnic divide that they now have,” McGlinchey said.

Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan is moving closer to becoming Central Asia’s first parliamentary democracy. The United States backs the new model, but Kyrgyzstan’s former master, Russia, opposes it. There are American and Russian military air bases in Kyrgyzstan. And, in addition to the ethnic rivalries here, there may also be a nascent Islamic militant movement. The U-S certainly does not want to see a failed state here.

Politkovskaya extensively covered the war in Chechnya and was often critical of the Kremlin and its alleged human rights abuses.

Polikovskaya’s former colleague Sergei Sokolov, deputy editor of Novaya Gazeta, called the arrest a “development in the case” but he questioned the timing. He says he wonders why it took the police so long to capture the suspect

Sokolov was also quoted in the Russian media as saying that, “he’d be very interested to know how the suspect managed to leave Russia and come back from his journey while his name was on the international wanted list.”

Sokolov’s own newspaper is less circumspect. It investigated Politkovskaya’s murder and has implicated the Russian Security Service. Politkovskaya’s son, Ilya, says the government has a long way to go before Russians believe the arrest of his mother’s killer is anything but political.

Politkovsky says we have to wait and see if Makhmudov’s guilt will be proven. But even that won’t even be enough. We need to know who actually masterminded my mother’s murder.

The arrest of Politkovskaya’s supposed killer isn’t the only police action lately. Just a few weeks ago, a court jailed a Russian nationalist for life, for the brazen daylight murder of another Novaya Gazeta reporter and a human rights lawyer.

“There’s a lot of coincidences these days,” said Anna Sevortian, head of Human Rights Watch in Moscow. “We might expect new things flooding the informational context of political life in Russia just because the elections are looming.”

The Kremlin disputes accusations that political posturing is going on. Officials have consistently claimed they’re committed to solving the cases of slain journalists. They point to the recent arrests and convictions as examples.

Andrei Kortunov, with the New Eurasia Foundation, says even if the Kremlin’s renewed interest in crimes against journalists is a pre-election ploy, perhaps it’s not such a bad thing.

“We’re entering a new political season, so (the) state is get(ting) more sensitive about journalists,” said Kortunov. “Still, these current prosecutions suggest that state is ready at least to listen to voices which raise concerns about the state of the profession in Russia.”

Ivorian refugees in Liberia (Photo: Bonnie Allen)

By Bonnie Allen

In south-eastern Liberia, just a few miles from the border with Ivory Coast, David Hotto uses a machete to hack through the bush.

The Ivorian refugee has found some work cutting sugarcane, to earn a little money.

“I’m farmer,” Hotto said. “I do it to eat.”

Hotto fled to Liberia in April, one of the 160,000 Ivorians who fled across the border to escape violence in their country. Hotto said militants loyal to elected President Alassane Ouattara invaded his village because he and his neighbors supported Laurent Gbagbo, the former president who refused to cede power. Gbagbo has since been ousted, but Hotto said it is still too dangerous to go home.

“Everybody holding arms,” he said. “There’s no real government now in place.”

Ouattara has vowed to create a national unity government and reconciliation process. But there is still no national army. Hotto said he won’t go back until Ouattara disarms all the rogue young men who picked up guns to fight – on either side.
While Hotto lingers, things are becoming difficult in the Liberian village where he is waiting it out.

Its population has more than doubled. In some homes, a dozen refugees squeeze into one small bedroom.

Most of the people who fled Ivory Coast during the violence have refused to move into formal camps. They are staying put in border villages that are closer to home, and similar to their own farm communities.

The refugees are spread out across 200 small villages. It has become a huge burden on already impoverished areas.
“We got no food to eat,” said Kemah Sandi, a widow and mother of seven. She is feeding and sheltering Ivorian refugees because they come from the same ethnic tribe and speak the same local dialect.

“They tell us, ‘oh, you my Ma now. You take care of us.’ You can’t say no,” Sandi said.

But eight years after the end of its own civil war, Liberia remains one of the poorest countries it the world, and it still hasn’t been able to ramp up agriculture production. The country imports more than half of its staple foods.
Now, the refugees are jeopardizing next year’s rice crop.

Mary Gaye uses a long wooden pole to pound the little seed rice that she has left, barely enough to bother planting. The Liberian woman has been feeding 15 refugees in her house since December.

“I’m really catching a tough time,” Gaye said. “They’ve been here so long.”

The refugees staying in her home, like most of the Ivorian refugees, are supporters of Ouattara. They crossed the border early in the crisis, when Gbagbo’s army attacked.

Officials from Ouattara’s new government recently visited this area to tell refugees it’s safe to return home.

But Jean Paul Tumule said his farming tools were looted back home and he didn’t get his crop in, so he will stay in Liberia where he can get dry rations from the World Food Program.

“The crisis is not over. We’re in the middle of it,” said Ibrahima Coly, who is in charge of the United Nations refugee agency’s efforts in Liberia. He predicts most refugees will stay in Liberia for a year, and he is worried that Liberia can’t handle it.

“This country is coming from war. The local population is struggling to survive,” Coly said. “If we don’t have funds, the situation will be more and more difficult.”

Coly said he needs $120 million to meet their needs, but so far, donor countries have given less than half that amount.
As the rainy season gets under way, international aid agencies are scrambling to fix bridges, build washrooms, install water systems, and improve limited health services to remote areas. All those, before six months of torrential downpours wipe out roads and cut off access to those border villages.

(Photo courtesy: www.kremlin.ru)

Then, he ran afoul of Vladimir Putin and served eight years in jail for money laundering and embezzlement. Tuesday, Khodorkovsky learned he’ll serve five more.

The ruling might reinforce Putin’s tough-guy image. That’d be fine with the Prime Minister. But it might also be fine with Dmitry Medvedev. He’s been Putin’s political partner for years.

But the two are starting to brand themselves as political opposites as next year’s presidential elections draw near. Andrei Zolotov, editor of Russia’s Profile magazine, said the political posturing is an interesting thing for modern-day Russia.

“What’s absolutely clear is that in the last couple of months both President Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have distinguished themselves from one another,” Zolotov said. “There is posturing going on with statements from Libya to statements on car factories.”

Not too long ago, Putin attempted to test-drive a new Lada Granta in Togliatti, Russia’s equivalent of Detroit’s motor city. In front eager camera crews Putin looked under the hood, kicked the tires, and touted the car’s reasonable price.

Then, he got set for a test drive and the car wouldn’t turn over.

It was a rare stumble in what has otherwise been a Putin PR juggernaut.

Putin’s other tough guy antics have included tranquilizing endangered grey whales, capturing a rare Siberian Tiger and even helping to douse last year’s raging forest fires from a B-200 bomber.

But does this type of manly sportsman-like PR work?

“I think it’s kind of a universal that people want to see someone who is in charge,” said Victoria Hargrave, senior manager of International Projects at the PR firm Edelman in Moscow. “It’s no longer enough to give the news channel your statement. It’s more important for leaders to be there and have a physical presence.”

Throughout his presidency, Dmitry Medvedev has allowed Putin to take the spotlight. But many analysts say that Medvedev is finally realizing that he needs to “get out there” more.

At a recent event, Medvedev showed his hip, younger side by clapping, swaying and even dancing to a thumping Russian pop tune called, “American Boy.”

Medvedev is branding himself as the modern alternative to Putin, and also taking steps to show himself as his own man.

The state-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper – ostensibly under Medvedev’s control – recently published a glossy advertising insert in the New York Times.

In addition to highlighting a “western-leaning” Russia, the paper includes a review of a new documentary. The German film is highly critical of the imprisonment of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Khodorkovsky was arrested for fraud after becoming involved in a public conflict with then-President Vladimir Putin.

In the movie’s trailer online, a deep-voiced announcer plainly accuses Putin of orchestrating Khodorkovsky’s arrest.

“It’s all pokazooka, you know like showing off, not doing anything for the people,” said Maria Olegovna, with the Jay Walter Thomson ad agency. “If you ask me, serious advertising and self promotion they’ve been doing looks quite ridiculous. I think Russians are tired of being fed empty promises he always promises what Russia really needs someone to get something done by not doing bla, bla, bla that much.”

But perhaps Putin and Medvedev’s attempts at branding themselves aren’t really aimed at regular “Russians” at all. Andrei Kortunov is president of the New Eurasia Foundation, a think-tank based here in Moscow. He said the real kingmakers for next year’s elections aren’t the electorate, or even Putin, but the political elites.

“They have a lot of influence on specific decisions,” Kortunov said. “They control resources, they make major decisions and they feel secure and stable no matter who comes to power. Their positions are quite important. If they opt for changes they prefer to see Medvedev if they opt for stability and status quo Putin is their guy.”

So the question now is whether these political elites think Russia’s brand should be “tough guy,” or “thoughtful, modern reformer.”

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The text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI’s THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI’s THE WORLD is the program audio.

Lisa Mullins: One high-profile Egyptian woman who’s pushing for changes in her country is Buthanya Kamel; she’s the first woman to run for president in Egypt.  Kamel is also a former television news anchor who was fired by Egypt’s state-run TV, and she was part of the protests against the Mubarak regime.  Kamel says that she’s running for president to bring permanent reforms to Egypt.

Buthanya Kamel: Because I believe that we need a great revolution in Egypt.

Mullins: And when you speak of revolution are you talking about a political and social revolution?

Kamel: Yes, political and social, we need a lot of changes against poverty, against corruption, with legality; but we know that we have a long road for the freedom, for the democracy.  We know that very well.  We must profit of this moment.

Mullins: So you want to capitalize on this moment, but I wonder the fact that you are a woman, the first woman to run for president in Egypt, you are the only woman who’s running right now, if Egyptians can look at your platform beyond your gender?

Kamel: Maybe, my supporters, both men and women, and they accept me.  You know, Lisa, who confronts me now?  Not my people, not the Egyptians, but the old regime.  They ban me from, I am a news leader, they stopped me to read the news in the Egyptian TV.  They accuse me in the Army court.  I express myself honestly, and at that point, the woman can change the politics or the view of the politicians all over the world.  Woman is more strict, more direct, and we need in our country to give good values to our people.  You understand me?

Mullins: Yes, I understand.  Let me ask the question kind of in reverse.  You know the dire straits that women are in in Egypt.  So why not?  Why not champion women’s issues there, the acceleration of women in society then?

Kamel: Because I am a candidate for all Egypt — the peasant, the workers, the women, the handicaps, the cops, the Nubian, the Bedouin.  We haven’t [inaudible 3:00] in this country.  The cops told me the same.  The Bedouin told me we are in apartheid, all of us in apartheid under the old regime.  I told them no, all of us is under discrimination, and that’s my mission to all Egyptian people.

Mullins: Ms. Kamel, thank you very much.

Kamel: Thank you, thank you, Lisa.

Mullins: Buthanya Kamel is the first woman to run for president in Egypt.

Copyright ©2009 PRI’s THE WORLD. All rights reserved. No quotes from the materials contained herein may be used in any media without attribution to PRI’s THE WORLD. This transcript may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior written permission. For further information, please email The World’s Permissions Coordinator at theworld@pri.org.

Read the Transcript
The text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI’s THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI’s THE WORLD is the program audio.

Lisa Mullins: I am Lisa Mullins and this is The World, a co-production of the BBC World Service, PRI and WBGH in Boston. International observers described this weekend’s election in Nigeria as one of the country’s fairest in decades but yesterday riots broke out in the north. It happened just after the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan was named the winner. Jonathan is a Christian from the south. Nigeria’s south is predominantly Christian, the north is mostly Muslim and there is an informal agreement to rotate the Presidency. Some in the north thought that the agreement had been violated with Jonathan’s election so they went on rampages destroying churches and homes and businesses. These witnesses who fled say they saw people lose everything in the riots.

Witness 1: They are homeless. I saw people that have been killed.

Witness 2: I saw people running just to save their lives. Houses were burnt where I reside.

Witness 3: This is my home.

Witness 4: There is no peace here. People have been running out of their place. They have to run to save their own lives.

Mullins: The BBC’s Dan Isaacs witnessed the elections in the north. He is now in the capital Abuja.

Dan Isaacs: I was in the northern city of Kaduna, one of the places where there is now being serious trouble and unrest and the voting there went extremely well. And for Nigerian elections, I have been to the past few; this was remarkably well carried out. It was peaceful. It was orderly. The ballot papers and all voting materials arrived on time. People did queue for a long time in the hot sun to be able to vote but it a good optimism that the polling was going very well. What happened after that was that people started to in the north, the people that had been voting for the opposition candidate, the main opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari, when it became evident that he was losing and losing badly to the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, people started to get very upset. They believe there had been rigging, not at the polling stations but afterwards, at the counting, the central counting station in Abuja. And that is what they got very upset about and that’s when the unrest started and it started with those opposition supporters of Muhammadu Buhari going for the known supporters of Goodluck Jonathan and that largely was Muslim communities going for Christian communities in the very divided cities such as Kaduna in the north of Nigeria.

Mullins: What are the main issues that people there are concerned about, both in the north and in the south?

Isaacs: Well there are so many issues facing a President of Nigeria and a government of Nigeria. I mean just one of them is so well illustrated by what you might be able to hear in the background. It is an enormous generator keeping the power of this hotel going perhaps half the day. A country that produces an enormous amount of oil and gas, it is one of Africa’s largest energy producers, it doesn’t have the capability to provide power to its people. So that is one of the reasons and you can hear behind me the generators just stopped, the power has come back to the hotel and this is a constant, constant sound in Abuja and across Nigeria.

Mullins: One of the questions; Goodluck Jonathan is seen as good news for Nigeria by many in the international communities. Many thought that he would fight the corruption that is so endemic in Nigeria. Does he right now seem to have the support of the international community?

Isaacs: I think by the fact, that the election was seen to be carried out in a very straight forward and free and fair way and in a transparent way, in a rigorous way by the Election Commission here for the first time in the last twelve or so years. By that very fact he has the support of the international community. I think it will be interesting to see whether the complains by the opposition that there was fraud and rigging at the central level during the counting of this election, whether that holds any sway. But yes, the international community wants a stable Nigeria. They want a democratically elected President they can do business with and that somebody that could actually hold sway in the international stage as a leader of a country by popular mandate. That is what countries not just further field but in the region as well. Nigeria is a very important player in the region. If Nigeria gets it right with its elections, the rest of the region would look to it and try to follow it and emulate it.

Mullins: Dan, thank you. The BBC’s Dan Isaacs in Abuja, Nigeria speaking to us about the post-election violence in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation. Thanks very much Dan.

Isaacs: Thank you very much Lisa.

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The text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI’s THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI’s THE WORLD is the program audio.

Marco Werman: Ouattara has been calling for the U.N. to intervene to end the bloodshed in Ivory Coast. He’s accused U.N. forces of being absent from some of the worst violence there. And he wants U.N. peacekeepers to get rid of incumbent Laurent Gbagbo. Today a U.N. helicopter fired on the presidential palace in Abidjan, used by Gbagbo and his forces. And French forces opened fire on a military compound there. That’s after France said it’s forces in Ivory Coast would join the U.N. mission there. Earlier in the day we spoke with Colum Lynch who covers the U.N. for The Washington Post and Foreign Policy Magazine.

Colum Lynch: There are some 9,000 troops, U.N. peacekeepers. There’s another contingent of over 1,000 French military forces who are there in a sense to help support the U.N. mission. But they’re spread pretty thin. I saw some sort of internal reports which provided a category of attacks against the U.N. by Bagba’s forces over the last several months. You know, you see a picture of a, of a U.N. mission that is daily being challenged by a national army essentially. And so, while they have the ability, the wherewithal to do certain things, they’re largely in a kind of defensive mode.

Werman: Well you call it kind of a defensive role, or that’s what they call it. I mean in situations like this is there any advantage or purpose to these U.N. boots on the ground? It sounds like it is almost entirely preventative.

Lynch: I think, you know, you see a good comparison is when, you know, there’s an effort by the big powers to engage in an operation like Libya where they’re protecting civilians. I mean they’re using, you know, NATO air assets and, you know, they have a lot of force to bring to bear. And the U.N. peacekeeping can do quite a bit but they don’t have that kind of muscle.

Werman: What does it take for a more muscular intervention from the U.N. in any situation, generally speaking?

Lynch: Well I mean generally there are situations where, you know, traditionally the U.N. doesn’t go in to situations where there’s a non-consensual ongoing military conflict. They’ve kind of slipped into this. You know, generally what happens is that the U.N. goes in when there’s a peace agreement, when there’s a political settlement. There are cases where they used a lot of force, where they engage in offensive operation. You would see it in places like Congo, you’ll see it in Haiti. But in those cases they’re generally targeting militia groups. They’re not taking on a national army. So they’re, they’re really, they’ve kind of moved into a new situation in Ivory Coast as a result of the changing nature of the political situation there and the military confrontation.

Werman: Colum Lynch covers the U.N. for the Washington Post and Foreign Policy. Thank you Column.

Lynch: All right thanks for having me Marco, take care.

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National Assembly of Côte d'Ivoire in Abidjan(Photo: Zenman)

Marco Werman talks to Ba Coulibay, an English teacher and translator living in Abidjan, about the conditions in his neighborhood in the embattled city. Download MP3

• Ivory Coast’s president-elect says his troops are outside key city
• Elizabeth Dickinson tweets on Ivory Coast

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The text below is a phonetic transcript of a radio story broadcast by PRI’s THE WORLD. It has been created on deadline by a contractor for PRI. The transcript is included here to facilitate internet searches for audio content. Please report any transcribing errors to theworld@pri.org. This transcript may not be in its final form, and it may be updated. Please be aware that the authoritative record of material distributed by PRI’s THE WORLD is the program audio.

Marco Werman: I’m Marco Werman. This is The World. There was fierce fighting today in Abidjan, the main city in Ivory Coast. Troops loyal to the internationally recognized president, Alassane Quattara, have zeroed in on the home of Laurent Gbagbo. He is the incumbent president who refuses to step down peacefully after losing an election in November. Loud explosions and gunfire could be heard near Gbagbo’s residence today. Alassane Quattara himself is urging Gbagbo supporters to abandon their leader and switch sides. But for now, Gbagbo appears to still have enough support to fend off the attacks on his home. And his foreign minister, Alcide Djedje, says Gbagbo is actually willing to talk with his rival:

Alcide Djedje: Let’s see the negotiations first, and we will see what is the outcome of these negotiations. But we have ____ a solution, and we just want to sit down and find a way, political way, for, to end this crisis. Mr. Gbagbo is not one who wants to keep the power. We just want to sit down to save lives of the Ivorians.

Werman: The heavy fighting in Abidjan started yesterday when the pro-Quattara forces entered the city. Residents are nervously monitoring the fighting. Ba Coulibaly is a teacher and translator in Abidjan. He told us earlier that in his part of the city the fighting has died down a bit.

Ba Coulibaly: I am in Macorice, which is a very ____ plateau. The place is calmer now compared to yesterday. At the same time we don’t have any fight, but we still have people shooting. And we have been experiencing a lot of lootings. But it stopped now, and people can go out, but not very far from the house.

Werman: Are you in any danger?

Coulibaly: No, we feel safe. But we fear people looting. We see a lot of young people trying to enter everywhere they can get something to loot. So it’s like a very messy situation.

Werman: What are you doing for food, if you can’t really leave your house?

Coulibaly: We stored some simple foods. I think I have enough for two or three days. But we hope the situation will get better on Monday or Tuesday.

Werman: Reports are now saying that Mr. Gbagbo is cornered in a small area of Abidjan. Is that the neighborhood of Plateau you were talking about earlier?

Coulibaly: Yes, yes.

Werman: And are you able, where you are in Macorice, able to get any news out of what’s happening in the Plateau area of Abidjan?

Coulibaly: No, it’s only news we get from international medias. No one really knows what is happening, but people say that they are still fighting.

Werman: Now, when we spoke with you in the past, Mr. Coulibaly, you said it was hard to know just how safe it was to discuss politics freely with anyone. Is that still the case?

Coulibaly: It depends on the area you have. It’s worse in places like Ukorong, which is more for Gbagbo. You can easily get burned if they think that you are not following their vision. But in the area I am, it’s a little more free, because it’s more for Quattara. But we avoid talking about politics outside.

Werman: And when you say it’s easy to get burned, if they recognize one as a Quattar supporter, do you mean literally burned, like they would set you on fire or just chase you out of the neighborhood? What do you mean?

Coulibaly: They use tires and burn people alive.

Werman: Have you actually witnessed that, Mr. Coulibaly?

Coulibaly: No, no, because I am not living in such areas. But I heard about that and we saw in news.

Werman: Where you are in Macori in Abidjan, are you seeing any evidence of U.N. or French troops?

Coulibaly: No. I can hear people shooting and I know they are not they. Someone told me that they saw French forces around the supermarket, but they didn’t stop people looting. It’s like they are very passive, only caring for French interests and French people living in Cote d’Ivoire.

Werman: So I assume that one of the things that people in Macori would like to see is more troops who can control the looting and the rioting right now.

Coulibaly: Yes, yes. We really hope the U.N. forces and French forces, they might help to get the place secured. Maybe not fighting against Gbagbo forces, but making people stop looting and entering into houses. Because people do what they want now because no policeman, no official force is in the street.

Werman: English teacher and translator, Ba Coulibaly, speaking with us from Abidjan. Thank you very much and stay safe, sir.

Coulibaly: Thank you.

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